557 
fxus65 klkn 232148 
afdlkn 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Elko Nevada 
207 PM PDT Wednesday Jul 23 2008 


Synopsis...drier weather and warmer temperatures are expected for 
the remainder of the week under high pressure and southwest 
flow. Monsoon moisture should return to central Nevada this 
weekend...then move northward by midweek. && 


Short term...tonight through Friday. Drying trend continues 
overall...but some residual moisture is pooling in NE Nevada. Visible imagery 
shows developing cumulus east of the Ruby Mountains along surface 
convergence axis. Could see a stray thunderstorm develop in this area 
late this afternoon...then clearing this evening. Otherwise airmass 
will continue to dry over next couple days with daytime dew points 
dropping into the teens in many areas. This will limit convection and 
SW flow aloft will keep airmass dry. Monsoon moisture may slip 
northward into the southeast corner of White Pine County late Friday...but 
threat looks minimal at this time. Main message next couple days is 
gradual warming and lower humidity. Models in good agreement through 
Friday with 700 mb temperatures warming to 19c on GFS by Friday afternoon. GFS 
solution appears reasonable with building ridge in wake of northern 
rockies shortwave trough. Kbb. 


Long term...Friday night through Wednesday. At the start of the 
longer term...an upper-level ridge of high pressure will be centered 
over the Southern Plains on Friday night...which will slowly 
retrograde westward into The Four Corners region by Wednesday 
evening. Meanwhile...short-wave troughs will move across the Pacific 
northwest. This combination will keep winds aloft mainly westerly 
until later Tuesday into Wednesday...when the winds will have the 
opportunity to turn more southerly as the ridge retrogrades into The 
Four Corners. The end result is that the monsoonal moisture will 
only gradually return northward across the region during the 
period...with storms confined to White Pine County on Saturday...but 
then spreading north and west into much of Nye...Lander...Eureka and 
Elko counties by Wednesday. Day-time highs should remain near to 
slightly above normal with the ridge in place...which translates 
into the 90s across most valleys. Rcm && 


Aviation...high pressure will keep the weather quiet through the 
taf period. Winds will remain below 20 knots sustained and 25 knots 
in gusts...cloud cover will be virtually non-existant...and 
visibilities will be greater than 10 miles. Rcm && 


Fire weather...drier SW flow expected over next couple days with 
ridge building just east of Nevada. Main impact will be lower humidity 
with fair to poor nighttime recovery. Driest zones will be 451 and 
457. Should see the typical afternoon southwest to west surface 
winds locally gusting to 25 to 30 miles per hour in exposed terrain. Monsoon 
moisture will edge closer to eastern White Pine County by late 
Friday. A little moisture may bring some isolated convection to 
zones 455 and 457 this weekend...but threat will be minor. Stronger 
monsoonal surge expected into central Nevada Monday or Tuesday then 
spreading northward by Wednesday. Kbb. && 


Lkn watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


$$