807 
fxus65 klkn 211048 
afdlkn 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Elko Nevada 
248 am PST Sat Nov 21 2009 


Synopsis...snow showers are possible across the mountains of 
northeastern Nevada today as a weak storm system exits the region. 
A second storm system will bring gusty winds and the threat of 
light snow to northern Nevada on Sunday. High pressure rebuilds 
over the Great Basin Monday...with dry conditions and above normal 
high temperatures through Thanksgiving weekend. && 


Short term...today through Monday. Models have backed off on the 
probability of precipitation and quantitative precipitation forecast for northern Nevada today as the trough exits east 
into Utah. Mountains of Elko County could receive up to an inch 
of new snow today...however the probability of snow accumulations 
in valley areas of northern Nevada has diminished greatly. 


A brief break in the action is expected tonight...however a second 
trough will push into northwestern Nevada early Sunday morning 
bringing a returned threat of showers to Humboldt...northern 
Lander and Eureka...and Elko County. Once again snow accumulations 
look to be confined mainly to the mountains of northern 
Nevada...with only trace amounts of precipitation possible in valley 
areas. 


Winds will be a bigger concern on Sunday as a 100+kt 300 mb jet 
brushes across northern Nevada. Most of northern Nevada and 
portions of central Nevada are expected to be breezy or windy 
Sunday afternoon. Higher resolution wrfarw model showing winds 
over and along the eastern slopes of mountains in northern Nevada 
becoming very windy...with localized gusts of 50-60kts possible. 


Winds and precipitation over northern Nevada will diminish by midnight 
Sunday night as high pressure begins to build in from the 
southwest...kickoff off a long stretch of days with dry conditions 
and warm afternoon temperatures. 


Long term...Monday night through Friday. Models in good agreement 
to begin the period with strong upper ridge over the western states 
for dry weather and above normal daytime temperatures. Models 
diverge towards the end of the week however. The Euro is much 
further south with short wave on Friday taking it across the Great 
Basin while the GFS keeps it well to the north keeping our area dry. 
Most of the GFS ensemble members are further south with the short 
wave than the operational GFS. Current forecast already more in line 
with the Euro solution and calls for a slight chance to chance of 
showers across mainly northern Nevada Friday so will make little if any 
changes to existing forecast. && 


Aviation...low pressure system will be moving out of northestern Nevada this 
morning with a few showers possible across northestern Nevada. Conditions 
expected to remain VFR at all terminals. && 


Lkn watches/warnings/advisories...none. && 


$$ 


96/91/91