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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Elko Nevada 
200 PM PDT Thursday Jul 3 2008 


Synopsis...a weak Pacific disturbance is expected to move into 
northern Nevada late Friday and into Saturday bringing slightly 
cooler temperatures and breezy conditions. Hot temperatures will 
return to the region next week as high pressure builds over the 
Great Basin. 
&& 


Short term...tonight through Saturday...quiet weather expected to 
continue into tonight with high pressure building aloft this 
afternoon. Surface temperatures have responded with Elko Airport showing 
temperatures in the upper 90s as of 1 PM. Other areas are in the low to 
middle 90s and should reach highs in the upper 90s as well. Low temperatures 
tonight are expected to be on the mild side and generally in the 50s 
to low 60s. 


Models continue to show an upper level trough...currently over the 
Pacific Ocean...pushing across northwest Nevada and weakening during Friday 
afternoon. No precipitation is expected with this system as it quickly 
ejects northeast over the area and into the northern Rocky Mountains 
Friday night. Expect some high clouds to push over the area and winds 
to increase out of the SW starting late Friday morning. GFS shows 
700mb winds in excess of 30 kts over central Nevada and NE Nevada with 500mb 
winds around 40 kts Friday afternoon. Combined with a weak surface 
pressure gradient...locally windy conditions are expected across 
White Pine...northern Nye and eastern Elko County Friday with gusts up to 45 
miles per hour. Temperatures are expected to cool a few degrees Friday and Saturday 
behind the trough...but still remain ~5 degrees above normal. Highs in 
the upper 80s to middle 90s are expected across the area Friday and 
Saturday...and is likely to be the coolest temperatures we will see through 
next week. Models show lighter winds on Saturday with dry westerly 
flow aloft. Other than some minor adjustments to wind speeds and 
relative humidity...made no changes to previous forecast. Tt 


Long term...Saturday night through Thursday. A weak upper level 
wave will pass through the region Saturday night and early Sunday 
without much fanfare. However...behind this wave upper level heights 
will begin to increase across the region...resulting in increasing 
temperatures through middle week. Highs on Sunday will be generally in 
the upper 80s to middle 90s across the valleys...and are expected to 
increase nearly 10 degrees to the upper 90s to around 105 by 
Wednesday. The latest European model (ecmwf) is a bit slower than the GFS with the 
warm-up...and took this into consideration when doing the grids. 
Winds will be generally light for most of this period...and decided 
to go with a more northerly direction similar to the 06z GFS and the 
12z European model (ecmwf). Knutsvig 
&& 


Aviation...winds have been gusty around most of the taf sites 
today...with wmc just starting to increase. Tomorrow will be a 
little more windy...with wind gusts to around 35 kts expected in 
kely and 30 kts in ktph. Otherwise the deep convection tomorrow is 
expected stay to the north and east of the area. Knutsvig 
&& 


Fire weather...Fire Weather Watch across central Nevada has been 
upgraded to a red flag warning Friday afternoon...with forecast 
models showing good consistency compared to yesterday. Expect 
the strongest winds across White Pine County and northeastern Nye 
County with sustained southwest winds between 20 to 30 miles per hour and gusts 
up to 45 miles per hour Friday afternoon. Will keep the Fire Weather Watch going 
for zones 454 and 451 since there is lower confidence that those 
areas will meet red flag criteria...mainly due to lower wind speeds. 
Forecast models showing weaker boundary layer winds compared to zones 
455 and 457...and also show middle to high level clouds pushing over 
northwest Nevada...limiting boundary layer mixing during the day. 
&& 


Lkn watches/warnings/advisories... 


Red flag warning in effect for fwz455-457 from 10 am PDT Friday 
morning to 8 PM PDT Friday evening. 


Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for fwz451-454 from late 
Friday morning until Friday evening. 
&& 


$$