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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 
325 am MDT Sat Oct 11 2008 


Discussion... 
so much weather fodder for discussion...so little time. Norbert 
moisture getting sucked up already ahead of potent...wind laden 
upper trough now closing off between Reno and Vegas. Showers and a 
few storms increasing across SW and S central nm and already 
getting into east central nm. As day progresses there will be further 
significant increase in shower/storm coverage and intensity. Storm Prediction Center 
expanded slight risk to the west to cover most of east and S central nm 
and this seems reasonable. Amount of cloud cover will be one 
factor that may limit severe potential in slight risk area along 
with fact that east edge of developing dry slotting will likely be 
too far west to aid in providing dry wedge in middle levels. But with 
winds aloft increasing and storms moving briskly to NE across risk 
area those winds will likely be captured and entrained in stronger 
storm downdrafts...making wind the greatest threat initially this 
afternoon...then hail...while secondary this afternoon...may become a 
little higher probability this evening. Cape maximized southeast nm late 
afternoon and east central nm this evening. Lowered probability of precipitation a little for this 
afternoon and night middle Rio Grande Valley and far north Socorro County 
and westward into portions Cibola County and nearby portions of 
adjacent counties. This done to account for what I believe will be 
a slight to moderate rain shadow effect of strong SW flow to NE of 
the Gila higher terrain. NAM guidance this area for 1st and 2nd 
period probability of precipitation much lower than GFS...astoundingly so...as it may be 
overdoing any rain shadow effect. If flow aloft was more southerly 
the probability of precipitation likely would be much higher. So forecast probability of precipitation are between 
NAM and mav guidance...but closer to mav. 


High wind watch upgraded to low end High Wind Warning for same 
areas as before for the west and Wind Advisory to the east kept in 
effect as well. May be a little marginal in the west...but the 
fewer clouds that move across there the better chance for criteria 
winds. Also clouds may make some eastern edges of Wind Advisory 
area a little marginal...but best to leave in place for now and 
let day crew adjust if need be. 


Still some model disagreement on degree of development and 
progression of follow up short waves in weakness behind initial 
stronger trough passage. NAM holding on to somewhat more amplified 
pattern with slower progression and am leaning a little more 
toward that scenario as that seems to more often than not 
materialize...especially if models hint at it well ahead of time. 
For that reason only trimmed back western edge of probability of precipitation field sun 
into Monday...but this an issue that will need to be watched closely. 
The size of the subfreezing temperature regime for early Monday and Tuesday 
still somewhat in doubt...but will undoubtedly be larger than 
currently depicted if secondary trough and associated clouds do 
not materialize. 


43 


&& 


Aviation... 
expect ceilings to lower across the forecast area today...especially 
along and east of the Continental Divide. Ongoing convection will 
gradually expand in coverage as the day progresses with widespread 
precipitation likely from 18z Sat through 06z sun. Heavier rains will produce 
MVFR conditions. With fast steering flow...expect storms to race 
toward the NE between 30 and 45 kts. A few of the stronger storms 
in the eastern plains may produce isolated wind gusts in excess of 50 kts 
and hail. After 06z Sunday...there is moderate to high confidence 
that widespread ceilings/fog will drop at or below IFR status along/east of the 
Central Mountain chain. Some patchy IFR conditions could develop in the 
Rio Grande Valley as well. With the aforementioned in mind...will 
add mention to 12z tafs for lvs/tcc only and let day/evening shifts 
include in abq/saf if necessary. 


Next aviation discussion scheduled for 21z. Dporter 


&& 


Fire weather... 
upper level storm system continues to strengthen over the western US... 
with deep moisture being advected northward from the eastern Pacific. 
Ongoing convection will continue to expand in coverage with models 
suggesting widespread activity along and east of the Continental 
Divide. Anticipate significant wetting rains and high humidities. 
A 70kt 700-500mb mean layer jet will bisect nm from the west central 
to northern mts. Some of this momentum will translate to the surface... 
allowing for breezy to very windy conditions statewide...strongest 
in the western zones. An upper level dry slot will migrate from west to 
east across the state starting Sat night...relegating precipitation chances 
and higher humidities to the eastern plains for Sunday. 


A bagging trough will remain across the central rockies for early 
next week as a surface boundary slides through the eastern plains Sun night 
into Monday. This front will bring much cooler temperatures to the 
region and allow for a decent amount of isentropic lift to generate 
widespread stratiform rain Monday/Monday night and possibly into Tuesday. For 
this period...there may be a large disparity in minimum humidities 
when comparing The Four Corners area to the eastern plains. 


Still uncertain as to the amount of cloud cover Sun night and Monday 
night in western and northern nm. If skies can clear out...expect the drier 
atmosphere coupled with light winds to enhance radiational cooling 
and the potential for widespread freezing conditions in the higher 
terrain. Dporter 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Farmington...................... 70 39 58 32 / 40 40 0 0 
Gallup.......................... 66 32 55 21 / 50 40 0 5 
Grants.......................... 68 36 60 23 / 50 70 10 5 
Glenwood........................ 69 43 66 38 / 80 60 5 20 
Chama........................... 56 32 50 28 / 70 80 10 0 
Los Alamos...................... 59 41 58 42 / 60 70 30 5 
Red River....................... 56 34 51 30 / 80 80 30 10 
Taos............................ 63 43 57 33 / 60 70 30 10 
Santa Fe........................ 63 42 61 36 / 60 70 30 10 
Santa Fe Airport................ 66 45 63 38 / 50 70 30 10 
Espanola........................ 68 45 66 32 / 50 60 20 5 
Albuquerque heights............. 71 50 68 44 / 50 50 20 5 
Albuquerque valley.............. 72 48 70 41 / 50 50 20 5 
Albuquerque foothills........... 69 44 65 38 / 50 60 20 5 
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 70 46 69 37 / 50 50 20 5 
Socorro......................... 71 50 72 40 / 50 50 20 10 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 60 39 63 34 / 60 60 30 5 
Moriarty/Estancia............... 64 44 63 39 / 50 60 30 10 
Carrizozo....................... 67 50 69 49 / 60 40 20 10 
Ruidoso......................... 64 47 62 43 / 70 40 20 20 
Raton........................... 67 45 66 34 / 60 70 30 10 
Las Vegas....................... 63 46 63 38 / 60 70 30 10 
Roy............................. 68 50 68 40 / 60 70 30 20 
Clayton......................... 72 55 73 45 / 70 70 30 40 
Santa Rosa...................... 70 53 72 47 / 70 60 20 20 
Tucumcari....................... 75 61 75 54 / 70 60 30 20 
Fort Sumner..................... 74 57 74 52 / 70 60 20 20 
Clovis.......................... 73 59 73 52 / 70 60 30 30 
Portales........................ 75 61 74 55 / 70 60 30 30 
Roswell......................... 80 60 78 58 / 60 40 20 20 


&& 


Abq watches/warnings/advisories... 
Wind Advisory from 9 am this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for 
the following zones...nmz002>007-009>012-015>017-026. 


High Wind Warning from 9 am this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening 
for the following zones...nmz001-008-014. 


&& 


$$ 


43/46 

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