784 
fxus64 kepz 032023 
afdepz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm 
223 PM MDT Thursday Jul 3 2008 


Synopsis... 
an upper disturbance will produce scattered thunderstorms across 
the area this afternoon and tonight...with locally heavy rainfall 
possible. Thunderstorms are expected to be less numerous from 
Independence day through early next week...with only isolated 
activity and best chances over the mountains. Afternoon 
temperatures will creep up to the century mark in The Lowlands 
Sunday through Tuesday. A weather disturbance will approach the 
area later next week...leading to slightly cooler temperatures and 
an increase in thunderstorm activity. 


&& 


Discussion... 
surface dewpoints have dropped into the middle-to-upper 40s in El 
Paso this afternoon...but i'm stubborn and will heavily count on a 
vorticity maximum dropping southward around the Arizona/Utah upper high for 
scattered thunderstorm activity in the County Warning Area this evening. 
Convection could persist overnight with the disturbance passing 
overhead. It's probably the best chance area wide for 
precipitation in the near future as upper high is prognosticated to shift 
southward a little and elongate more east-northeast-west-southwest as a short wave 
trough moves across its northern portion. This will keep most of 
the southward dropping disturbances we've experienced of late out 
of the picture. This will also allow desert valleys to heat up to 
near 100 for 2 or 3 days. 


By the middle of next week the upper high returns to a position 
to our northwest...perhaps even further away than currently... 
making US again vulnerable to disturbances dropping southward down 
the front side of the high. This could be as early as Tuesday 
afternoon...though it's not reflected in the probability of precipitation until Wednesday. 
In fact...the 12z GFS keeps upper high far enough north to allow a 
significant inverted trough to approach from the east. That would 
be interesting for just beyond the forecast period... and more 
monsoonal in nature than current pattern. For now I just increased 
probability of precipitation a notch for Wednesday...and began a slight cooling trend. 




&& 


Aviation...valid 04/00z-05/00z... 
mostly VFR through the period. However...scattered showers and 
thunderstorms this evening into tonight will cause MVFR to IFR 
conditions with locally heavy rain and gusty winds across far 
West Texas and south central New Mexico. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
high pressure to our north and west will allow for isolated to 
scattered thunderstorms tonight and Friday. For the weekend 
the high will build across New Mexico which will lessen our 
rain chances...but it will not eliminate them. In addition 
with the high pressure building in we will see afternoon high 
temperatures creep up five degrees or so. The upper level high 
will drift back to the west for the first part of next week. As 
the high drifts away this will again allow our rain chances to 
increase for the middle part of next week. 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
El Paso 71 95 72 98 74 / 30 20 20 10 20 
Sierra Blanca Texas 66 90 65 94 68 / 30 20 20 10 20 
Las Cruces 68 95 69 98 71 / 30 20 20 10 20 
Alamogordo 66 91 65 97 68 / 30 20 20 10 20 
Cloudcroft 48 72 49 74 50 / 40 20 20 20 20 
Truth or Consequences 66 92 65 98 68 / 40 20 20 10 20 
Silver City 60 86 59 89 61 / 40 20 20 20 20 
Deming 67 94 66 97 69 / 30 20 20 10 20 
Lordsburg 68 95 67 97 70 / 30 20 20 10 20 


&& 


Epz watches/warnings/advisories... 
nm...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


01/15 fausett/Brice