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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 
303 PM MDT Monday Oct 6 2008 


Discussion... 
currently...ridge building from tropical east Pacific north and 
eat to southern Alberta...leaving New Mexico in northwest flow 
aloft. Departing high amplitude trough extending from the 
Canadian Arctic to southeast Texas will continue to sweep eastward 
as ridge expands over New Mexico over the next couple of days. 
Surface low moving into western Oklahoma trailing a cold front 
that has crossed the Rio Grande into northern Mexico...as surface 
high remains in place over the Snake River Valley of southern 
Idaho. Pattern has cleared skies and kept temperatures on the cool 
side with a nip from northwest breezes this afternoon. 


Models...agreeing reasonably through The Heart of the work 
week...and models doing better with what was shaping up to be poor 
agreement on incoming systems this weekend. Ridge building across 
the southwestern U.S. Will maintain jet over northern half of the 
nation through midweek. System taking shape over the Pacific 
northwest by late Wednesday will sag to The Four Corners by late 
Friday...as both European model (ecmwf) and GFS now close off lows over southern 
Nevada and Utah and throw something approximating southwest flow 
over New Mexico heading into the weekend. European model (ecmwf) running 
slower than GFS...but GFS tilt in favor of European colleagues 
will have to be watched carefully for run to run continuity before 
too much more confidence in a difference split seems warranted. 
Timing and path of ejection remains in question...with European model (ecmwf) 
lifting out to the Dakotas and GFS lifting northeast to the 
Nebraska Sand Hills on Sunday. Impact for New Mexico will be 
timing of wind shift to northwest aloft...and timing of the end 
of the inevitable resulting precipitation. 


Short term...tonight through Thursday...good radiational cooling 
tonight will allow additional temperature drops overnight...but 
ridge building in overhead will help temperature rebound back 
above normal for Tuesday afternoon. Some weak warm advection sets 
up as afternoon flow across the state shifts to the southwest in 
response to Lee side surface trough developing over southeast Colorado. 


Into Wednesday...ridge in place for additional warming support over 
the state and continued southwest flow under mostly sunny skies. 


Into Thursday...zonal flow across northern U.S. Will start 
buckling southward as Pacific northwest system moves into the 
northern rockies and begins dig toward southern Nevada and Utah. 
Temperatures will level off on Thursday with gradual height 
falls. Surface low over southeast Colorado will deepen under the 
increasingly favorable dynamics in downstream limb of the digging 
trough...and wind speeds will increase gradually from the south 
and southwest. 


Long term...Friday through Sunday...unsettled pattern returning to 
the state as flow aloft shifts to the southwest and closed low 
digs to central Nevada and the Great Salt Lake country by Friday 
afternoon. Surface low setting up on northern border of the state will 
help push cold front southward...with precipitation triggered on 
warm front over northeast side of the state. Cold air will reach 
Interstate 40 on Saturday and into northern New Mexico and 
southern Texas by Sunday. Gusty winds...precipitation...and rapid 
establishment of broad north flow will provide a chilly and below 
normal wind up for the weekend. 


Shy 


&& 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions expected in most areas for the next 24 hours. Only 
exceptions will be a few mountain top obscurations and Low Valley 
clouds along and east of the Central Mountain chain during the 
overnight and early morning hours. Any MVFR ceilings will be fairly 
localized. 


Next aviation discussion scheduled for 09z. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
overall...a dry and fairly tranquil weather pattern is shaping up 
for most of the work week. A few moderate northerly breezes will 
rapidly diminish at sunset this evening across the forecast area and 
another night of excellent humidity recoveries is expected. Mostly 
clear skies and slightly lower dewpoints on Tuesday will lead to 
daytime relative humidities ranging from the teens in the west to 
the upper 20s in the eastern plains...and higher amounts in the 
central mountains. Temperatures will undergo a warming trend with 
near to slightly above normal readings on Tuesday...and then another 
3 to 8 degrees warmer in most locales on Wednesday. Light to 
moderate winds will also prevail through Thursday...and many areas 
will remain terrain dominated through the period. In the extended 
period from Friday and into the weekend...models are slowly trying 
to converge on a consensus with the upper level low pressure system 
diving south into the western U.S. And then tracking to the north of 
New Mexico. Despite some slight timing and track differences between 
various models...the basic end result seems to be one of increased 
winds from the west and southwest for Friday through Sunday. It 
appears that this system will be unable to tap into any subtropical 
moisture to the south...and most associated precipitation will 
bypass New Mexico. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Farmington...................... 40 73 42 78 / 0 0 0 0 
Gallup.......................... 31 72 32 76 / 0 0 0 0 
Grants.......................... 33 73 33 78 / 0 0 0 0 
Glenwood........................ 41 80 42 83 / 0 0 0 0 
Chama........................... 28 67 30 72 / 0 0 0 0 
Los Alamos...................... 38 66 40 72 / 0 0 0 0 
Red River....................... 28 62 27 65 / 0 0 0 0 
Taos............................ 34 69 31 73 / 0 0 0 0 
Santa Fe........................ 40 69 40 74 / 0 0 0 0 
Santa Fe Airport................ 41 70 41 75 / 0 0 0 0 
Espanola........................ 37 74 36 79 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque heights............. 49 74 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque valley.............. 41 77 41 80 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque foothills........... 43 71 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 45 79 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 
Socorro......................... 42 77 42 80 / 0 0 0 0 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 34 66 35 73 / 0 0 0 0 
Moriarty/Estancia............... 38 70 39 77 / 0 0 0 0 
Carrizozo....................... 40 76 41 79 / 0 0 0 0 
Ruidoso......................... 37 67 38 71 / 0 0 0 0 
Raton........................... 35 70 34 77 / 0 0 0 0 
Las Vegas....................... 36 69 41 78 / 0 0 0 0 
Roy............................. 44 71 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 
Clayton......................... 44 73 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 
Santa Rosa...................... 42 77 43 85 / 0 0 0 0 
Tucumcari....................... 47 75 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 
Fort Sumner..................... 47 77 47 83 / 0 0 0 0 
Clovis.......................... 46 75 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 
Portales........................ 47 79 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 
Roswell......................... 51 79 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Abq watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


Shy/52 

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