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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 
315 PM MDT Wednesday Jul 23 2008 


Discussion... 
another round of storms producing heavy rainfall are likely this 
afternoon/evening across western nm. Similar situation as compared to 
yesterday...with one high centroid located over Southern California and another 
over the Texas/OK panhandles. A deformation zone remains between these 
two features...which has shifted slightly to the west compared to 
Tuesday afternoon. 850-700mb Theta-E ridge axis remains along the 
Continental Divide with precipitable water values at or above one inch. To 
complicate matters...a mesoscale convective vorticity...or mesoscale convective vortex...is 
evident per satellite imagery. This feature is tracking south near 
the Chuska Mountains...which has been enhancing the convection over 
western McKinley and southern San Juan counties. With high water flows across 
the area per morning phone calls from San Juan to Catron counties... 
will continue Flash Flood Watch through midnight tonight. The best 
threat for activity tonight will be along/west of the Continental 
Divide with lesser activity eastward to the Central Mountain chain. 
Opted to ignore probability of precipitation per MOS guidance tonight as they appeared too 
low...especially in the west. 


For Thursday...upper high will refocus north of the forecast area 
with Theta-E ridge axis tilted to more of a NE/SW orientation from 
the northern to the SW mountains. This will shift the best chance for 
precipitation to these locations. High temperatures on MOS have been suffering by 
going too warm and have opted to undercut these numbers. 


The bigger story will shift to Hurricane Dolly which recently made 
impact to the Texas coastline...just north of Brownsville. Models 
continue to deviate on how the remains will be distributed across 
Mexico. Hurricane models are tracking the feature further north... 
with a couple of solutions moving it into southern nm. The main question 
is where the upper high will setup...and this will be impacted by 
how deep the Pacific northwest trough digs. At this time...it appears the main upper 
high will position itself over central Texas...opening the door for 
moisture to advect into the state. The European model (ecmwf) makes the situation a 
bit interesting and tracks the feature between two high centroids... 
stalling it out over New Mexico. In addition...a bit concerned as to 
whether the Sierra madres will block some of the moisture...mainly 
in the low/middle levels. Increased cloud cover in advance of the wave 
may also play havoc to the amount of instability and allow for more 
stratiform activity instead. Anyway...too early to make these calls 
but upcoming shifts will need to monitor for possible flash flood 
watches. For this package...decided to go down the middle of the 
Road with anticipation of added middle/upper level moisture migrating 
toward SW nm into central Arizona. With this in mind...increased probability of precipitation 
over the southern sections of the County Warning Area Friday through Sat and the west Sat 
night into Sunday. With uncertainty for the weekend...did not make 
changes beyond day five. Dporter 


&& 


Aviation... 
the main concentration of stronger thunderstorms producing MVFR and 
short duration IFR conditions will be found across the western third 
of the state. This includes terminal sites such as gup and fmn. 
Sites such as saf...abq and gnt will also be affected but not nearly 
as much or as long of a duration as the far western sites. Gusts of 
wind associated with storms will range between 30 to as high as 45 
kts for a short duration. 


Next aviation discussion scheduled for 09z. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
the highest concentration of wetting rain will remain across the 
western third the next 1 to 2 days. Although coverage is expected to 
lighten just slightly. All eyes will be on tropical feature Dolly as 
she makes her way inland. Some of the models are starting to produce 
a more northwesterly track which would takes some of her moisture 
into New Mexico. Some models want to even bring the remnants 
directly into New Mexico. Either way...it appears more and more 
likely that there will be another influx of moisture from Mexico 
late in the week and over the weekend. The best bet is across the 
west and south but model solutions are differing and will need to 
continue to monitor. Humidity readings are expected to remain above 
20 percent through the next several days. 50 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Farmington...................... 62 91 63 93 / 30 20 20 20 
Gallup.......................... 56 88 57 87 / 30 30 20 30 
Grants.......................... 55 89 57 86 / 30 30 30 30 
Glenwood........................ 60 88 64 88 / 30 30 30 30 
Chama........................... 48 83 47 83 / 40 30 30 40 
Los Alamos...................... 56 85 55 84 / 30 30 30 40 
Red River....................... 44 74 44 75 / 30 30 30 50 
Taos............................ 52 87 53 86 / 30 20 40 40 
Santa Fe........................ 58 87 57 85 / 30 30 30 30 
Santa Fe Airport................ 59 89 59 88 / 20 20 30 30 
Espanola........................ 58 92 61 91 / 30 20 30 30 
Albuquerque heights............. 68 90 68 89 / 20 20 30 20 
Albuquerque valley.............. 64 92 65 91 / 20 20 30 20 
Albuquerque foothills........... 66 89 65 88 / 20 30 30 20 
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 90 68 89 / 20 20 30 20 
Socorro......................... 65 92 66 90 / 20 20 20 20 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 53 86 56 86 / 20 30 30 30 
Moriarty/Estancia............... 58 88 59 87 / 20 20 30 30 
Carrizozo....................... 62 89 61 86 / 20 20 20 30 
Ruidoso......................... 54 81 54 75 / 10 20 20 30 
Raton........................... 57 91 57 89 / 10 10 20 30 
Las Vegas....................... 57 86 56 85 / 20 20 20 30 
Roy............................. 64 90 61 88 / 10 10 10 20 
Clayton......................... 65 94 64 94 / 5 10 10 10 
Santa Rosa...................... 64 96 64 92 / 10 10 10 20 
Tucumcari....................... 67 97 68 94 / 5 5 5 10 
Fort Sumner..................... 66 97 68 93 / 5 5 5 10 
Clovis.......................... 67 93 67 91 / 5 5 5 10 
Portales........................ 65 94 66 91 / 5 5 5 10 
Roswell......................... 68 96 69 91 / 5 5 5 20 


&& 


Abq watches/warnings/advisories... 
Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for the following 
zones...nmz001-008-014. 


&& 


$$ 


46/50 

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