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Area forecast discussion...corrected 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 
300 am MDT Thursday Aug 21 2008 


Corrected day of the week throughout the discussion. 


Discussion... 
fairly benign weather pattern is prognosticated across New Mexico for the 
next few days...with the main forecast challenge focused on diurnal 
temperatures. Satellite imagery depicting a batch of middle/high clouds 
over the southeast corner of the forecast area with patchy fog and 
stratus developing over the NE/ec plains. This lower activity should 
erode relatively quick after daybreak. As the upper level disturbance 
departs...high pressure will begin to dominate the weather pattern. 
700mb temperatures today will climb on the order of 1-5c...higher in 
the eastern plains. With the aforementioned in mind...expect a recycle 
Mode of moisture to commence...with the best threat for quantitative precipitation forecast over the 
higher terrain. The steepest 850-500mb lapse rates of 9.0c/km should 
be located along the eastern slopes of the Central Mountain chain as well as 
an axis from the San Mateo mts to the upper Gila. Steering flow will 
take storms in an S/southeast fashion. Temperatures at the surface will improve 
compliments of the upper high and warmer readings aloft. A Lee-side 
trough will also develop over the eastern plains...which could provide a 
focus for storms if they survive past the eastern slopes. The following 
shift may need to monitor this feature throughout the day and adjust 
probability of precipitation accordingly. Much of the activity should wane by sunset. 


The upper high will migrate into the northwest quadrant of nm for Friday... 
which will allow for warmer 700mb temperatures...generally on the 
order of 1-3c. Ultimately...this should suppress convection even 
more and will likely be the least active period of the short range 
forecast. The best threat for any quantitative precipitation forecast will be over the high terrain. 
Surface temperatures over the eastern plains may approach the century mark as 
another Lee-side trough develops. 


A surface boundary is prognosticated to enter the NE plains of New Mexico 
late on Saturday. Models have slowed the progression of this front... 
bringing it into the NE plains Friday evening. With this in mind... 
lowered probability of precipitation for Friday afternoon but increased values for the evening 
period. A slightly cooler regime can be expected behind the front. 


By the early to middle portion of the upcoming work week...the upper 
high could start to feel the effects of an advancing trough over the 
Pacific northwest. This feature would suppress the high southward... 
depending on how deep it develops. If this pans out per the GFS...it 
would allow for a more substantial westerly flow over nm...resulting 
in a drier and windier weather pattern. The 00z European model (ecmwf) is not sold on 
this solution just yet. Dporter 


&& 


Aviation... 
until middle morning...patches of low clouds with mainly MVFR ceilings 
will continue east of the central and northern mountains to the 
Texas border. A surface Lee trough is developing in the east...which 
will induce a stronger downslope flow component...resulting in less 
widespread low clouds that burn off quicker than yesterday. 
Locations favored for periods of MVFR ceilings through 16z include 
the vicinity of lvs...cvn...tcc and cao. The Lee trough will 
continue to strengthen today and prevent any low clouds or fog from 
returning tonight. The few thunderstorms that manage to develop 
under warm air advection aloft today should move toward the south 
and a little southeast at speeds from 10 to 20 miles per hour...except for 
storms near the Southwest Mountains which should move at speeds from 
5 to 10 miles per hour. Brief periods of MVFR conditions are possible with 
storms that develop in the vicinity of the Southwest Mountains...as 
well as those east of the Central Mountain chain. Cumulonimbus in tafs without 
ts or thunderstorms in the vicinity in the forecast indicate a low probability that 
thunderstorms will develop and/or uncertainty about when they may 
occur. 


Next aviation discussion scheduled for 21z. 44 


&& 


Fire weather... 
minimum humidities will drop to critical thresholds for a time today 
in central and western valleys...then also on parts of the eastern 
plains Friday. Meanwhile...temperatures will continue to rise 
through the end of the work week...especially in the east...while 
high pressure builds overhead. Convection will be pretty spotty 
until the weekend...and dry air in the low levels will enable the 
few storms that do develop to produce erratic wind gusts at speeds 
in the 30 to 50 miles per hour range. 


Models continue to forecast a back door cold front through the east this 
weekend...possibly strong enough to push into the Central Valley 
Saturday night and/or Sunday night. Models continue to send mixed 
messages on the timing and strength of this feature. The moisture 
increase and lift with this front should increase convection along 
and east of the central and north central mountains by late 
Saturday...then throughout the east and possibly into the west on 
Sunday. Temperatures will also drop a few degrees beginning in the 
east Saturday...then also in the west Sunday...as a result of this 
front. 44 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Farmington...................... 93 56 94 57 / 5 5 5 5 
Gallup.......................... 88 49 89 50 / 5 5 5 5 
Grants.......................... 88 49 90 50 / 5 5 5 5 
Glenwood........................ 91 58 92 60 / 10 10 10 10 
Chama........................... 83 41 84 44 / 5 5 5 5 
Los Alamos...................... 85 54 87 53 / 5 5 5 5 
Red River....................... 76 38 79 41 / 10 10 10 10 
Taos............................ 86 47 89 47 / 0 5 5 5 
Santa Fe........................ 88 55 89 54 / 10 0 5 5 
Santa Fe Airport................ 89 54 92 56 / 5 0 5 5 
Espanola........................ 93 51 94 55 / 0 5 5 5 
Albuquerque heights............. 91 64 93 66 / 5 5 5 5 
Albuquerque valley.............. 92 58 94 58 / 5 5 0 0 
Albuquerque foothills........... 89 63 92 64 / 5 5 5 5 
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 91 61 93 64 / 5 5 5 5 
Socorro......................... 92 57 93 59 / 5 5 5 5 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 82 49 87 50 / 5 5 5 5 
Moriarty/Estancia............... 88 52 90 51 / 10 5 5 5 
Carrizozo....................... 91 58 92 58 / 10 10 5 5 
Ruidoso......................... 82 52 84 51 / 10 10 10 10 
Raton........................... 87 49 90 51 / 5 5 5 5 
Las Vegas....................... 86 53 88 52 / 10 5 5 5 
Roy............................. 86 59 89 59 / 10 10 5 5 
Clayton......................... 87 62 92 61 / 5 5 5 5 
Santa Rosa...................... 92 60 96 60 / 10 10 0 0 
Tucumcari....................... 93 64 97 64 / 5 5 0 0 
Fort Sumner..................... 94 63 96 64 / 5 10 0 0 
Clovis.......................... 91 63 95 64 / 5 5 5 5 
Portales........................ 92 64 96 65 / 10 10 5 5 
Roswell......................... 95 66 99 67 / 5 5 0 0 


&& 


Abq watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


46/44 

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