111 
fxus64 kepz 110959 
afdepz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm 
359 am MDT Sat Oct 11 2008 


Synopsis... 
a strong low pressure system will pull tropical moisture off of 
Hurricane Norbert and will stream it over the region today with 
numerous showers and thunderstorms expected. Stronger winds will 
occur this afternoon with the highest winds expected over the 
mountains. Rains will diminish some tonight but will linger over 
areas east of the river through Monday. Another surge of moisture 
associated with a cold front will occur late Tuesday into 
Thursday with an increased chance of rain showers possible. 


&& 


Discussion... 
scattered shower and thunderstorms currently occurring over the 
area will become more numerous as the day progresses. A deeper 
surge of moisture is being pulled off of tropical system Norbert 
by a large low pressure system moving through the western part of 
the country. The moisture...combined with lift and forcing from 
the low will increase showers and thunderstorms into the numerous 
category by this afternoon. Atmospheric precipitable water values 
will be very high with some locally heavy rainfall possible... 
especially over the mountains. The upper low will cause increased 
winds across the region...but wind speeds are expected to remain 
below advisory criteria within the forecast area. 


Showers and thunderstorms will start to diminish for areas west 
of the Rio Grande this evening as circulation around the low 
pushes the plume of moisture further east. Showers will linger 
over zones east of the Rio Grande. On Sunday...much of the 
moisture along with the main energy from the upper low will have 
moved out of the forecast area...but enough residual moisture and 
forcing from the remaining trough will cause a few showers and 
thunderstorms to form for zones east of the Rio Grande through 
Monday. 


As the main trough lifts out the area Monday night...a strong 
surface cold front will drop south over the state. Moisture will 
be begin to flow back into the region along this boundary by late 
Tuesday and will continue through Thursday. Southwesterly flow 
aloft set up by a week trough along the California coast will 
result in a favorable profile for the development of at least a 
few showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Friday. The flow of 
moisture will be aided late in the week by an area of high 
pressure to the east that will help funnel Gulf of Mexico moisture 
over the region into next weekend. 




&& 


Aviation...valid 11/1200z-12/1200z... 
areas of MVFR conditions for ceilings and visibility in and near numerous 
showers and thunderstorms expected today. Mountain tops may be 
obscured. Strong wind gusts and turbulence possible over the 
higher terrain. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
the region will see an significant surge of moisture streaming off 
of tropical system Norbert today. Numerous showers and 
thunderstorms expected area wide. Winds will also increase today 
into the windy category with stronger gusts along ridge lines and 
passes. Rain will diminish this evening. Areas east of the Rio 
Grande will continue to have a chance of rain on Sunday and Monday 
with a drier air mass moving into areas west of the river. Another 
surge of moisture will occur late Tuesday through Thursday with a 
increased chance of precipitation. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
El Paso 81 60 81 59 82 / 60 40 10 10 10 
Sierra Blanca Texas 74 56 81 55 83 / 60 40 20 20 20 
Las Cruces 79 57 79 56 78 / 60 40 10 10 10 
Alamogordo 75 55 77 54 78 / 60 40 20 20 10 
Cloudcroft 53 37 57 36 57 / 70 50 20 20 20 
Truth or Consequences 77 57 75 56 78 / 60 40 20 10 10 
Silver City 68 52 64 51 68 / 60 40 20 10 10 
Deming 78 57 76 56 76 / 60 40 10 10 10 
Lordsburg 77 58 74 57 75 / 60 40 20 10 10 


&& 


Epz watches/warnings/advisories... 
nm...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


04/04