339 
fxus64 kepz 232142 
afdepz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm 
342 PM MDT Wednesday Jul 23 2008 


Synopsis... 
isolated and scattered thunderstorm will continue each afternoon 
and evening for tonight and Thursday. By Friday some moisture from 
the remnants of Hurricane Dolly may make it into the the area 
which will increase our rain chances for Saturday. The first part 
of next week will continue to see isolated thunderstorms. 
Temperatures will run near seasonal normals through the 
weekend...and little above normal next week. 


&& 


Discussion... 
as like yesterday the short term forecast looks the same...but the 
middle term forecast could be changing. In the short term we will 
continue to see the influence of a weak area of upper level high 
pressure. Today the high is centered more to the north so our 
storm motion is from east to west. Right now the high is keeping a 
lid on convection across the north...but as we heat up a little 
more I imagine we'll start popping up north...especially in the 
mountains. Thursday looks similar to today with isolated to 
scattered convection driven mainly by solar heating and moisture 
trapped near the surface. 


For Friday and beyond there are some changes coming to the 
forecast. Yesterday...all the models...except a couple of outliers 
had the moisture and energy associated with Dolly staying well to 
our south. Well today all the main models have done a flip flop 
and bring not only moisture but a fair amount of Dolly's energy up 
into the area. If today's models come to pass we will see a 
definite flood risk across the area starting Friday night and 
lasting through Sunday. The GFS brings the system up into western 
New Mexico on Saturday and then recurves it back across the area 
as it heads to the northeast. The NAM has a similar...but slower 
solution while the European model (ecmwf) is also a little slower but very similar 
to the GFS. I'm still not sold on this solution...so what i've 
done is upped probability of precipitation for Friday and Saturday into the low end 
scattered category. This Saturday could be big...or it could be a 
big bust. For now I will play things conservatively...but if the 
next couple of models stay consistent would could see a lot of 
rain this weekend. After this weekend the ridge tries to expand 
further south so that would tend to suppress...but not eliminate 
the rain chances for the first part of next week. 


Temperatures for Thursday and Friday will continue near seasonal 
normals...for Saturday and Sunday though as you might expect 
things get a little tricky. The GFS is saying highs on Saturday 
will be around 10 degrees below normal. I've started trending the 
highs a few degrees below normal on Saturday and Sunday...and 
we'll wait and see what the later models bring. For the first part 
of next week as the ridge expends we will see temperatures creep a 
little above normal. 


&& 


Aviation... 
valid 24/000z - 25/0000z 
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon 
and evening hours. Heavy rain with these storms may cause IFR 
conditions. Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies and light winds. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
a moist and unstable airmass will keep isolated to scattered showers 
and thunderstorms in the forecast. Expect slight drying the next 
couple days before the remnants of Hurricane Dolly impact the region 
toward the weekend. Heavy rain and flooding will continue to be the 
main threats with any storms that develop...although large hail 
cannot be ruled out. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
El Paso 72 96 71 92 70 / 10 10 20 30 30 
Sierra Blanca Texas 65 88 62 82 62 / 10 10 20 30 30 
Las Cruces 71 95 71 91 70 / 10 20 20 30 30 
Alamogordo 69 93 68 88 66 / 10 10 20 30 30 
Cloudcroft 50 74 48 70 48 / 20 20 30 40 40 
Truth or Consequences 69 93 67 89 67 / 20 20 20 30 30 
Silver City 60 87 59 83 58 / 30 30 30 30 30 
Deming 69 95 69 92 69 / 20 20 20 30 30 
Lordsburg 67 93 66 90 66 / 30 30 30 30 30 


&& 


Epz watches/warnings/advisories... 
nm...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Brice/Adair