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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 
1050 PM MDT Thursday Jul 3 2008 


Update...zone forecast product just updated to adjust area of probability of precipitation where new 
development occurring late this evening. Also updated probability of precipitation/weather for 
Friday and Friday night to reflect expected development over the 
higher terrain in the afternoon...and it/S prognosticated progression to 
the lower elevations in the late afternoon/early evening. 


&& 


Previous discussion...301 PM MDT Thursday Jul 3 2008... 
current charts...sprawling ridge across western and southwestern 
U.S. With eastern periphery camping out over central New 
Mexico...and providing dynamic edge for ongoing southbound 
thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Slow motion 
southward has created some Hydro problems in spots and would 
anticipate a few hailers before it is all over late this evening as 
surface heat low in place over the lower Colorado valley combined 
with weak westbound cold front lying along the Central Mountain 
chain will provide some additional forcing as afternoon heating probability of precipitation 
off the storms. 


Models...reasonable consensus showing subtle changes to the same 
basic pattern out through the middle of next week...with eastern 
nose of ridge shifting toward Texas Panhandle by late Saturday to 
shift thunderstorm focus gradually to the eastern side of the 
state to close out the weekend. Return slosh westward beginning 
Monday and continuing through Wednesday will bring more widespread 
thunderstorm coverage with it. Precipitable waters peaking over an 
inch in general...with 0.75 or better common over most spots 
through midweek. 


Short term...tonight and the Fourth of July...early fireworks will 
continue into the evening from central mountains west to the 
Arizona border...with a few cells getting started mainly south of 
Interstate 40 over the eastern plains. Gradual spill of 
thunderstorm coverage eastward on the Fourth of July...but 
strengthening ridge aloft may help restrict coverage and intensity 
for the Holiday. Festivities may compete with thunderstorms mainly 
along the northern mountains and sandias...and over the west 
central and Southwest Mountains. Temperatures pretty seasonable 
for middle Summer statewide. 


Long term...Saturday through Monday...ridge sprawling eastward 
over New Mexico on Saturday will limit convection...but move focus 
another smidge further into the eastern and northeast plains. 
Little change to temperatures. 


Into Sunday...Holiday weekend wrapping up with tighter Theta-E 
ridge extending from Clayton to Roswell setting up over eastern 
counties along the Texas border as possible focus for thunderstorm 
development. Model precipitable waters  running about a Buck and quarter...thus 
ample moisture for some Hydro problems in addition to usual rounds 
of gusts and hail. 


Into Monday...some cooler air penetrating westward into northeast 
New Mexico will erode Theta-E ridge from northeast to 
southwest...leaving primary thunderstorm focus mainly east of the 
central mountains and south of Interstate 40 to kick off the work 
week. 


Shy 


&& 


Aviation... 
widely scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorms will 
continue to develop across the higher terrain and immediately 
adjacent lowlands and move southward this afternoon and evening. 
Expect some occasional mountain obscurations...gusty outflow winds 
between 35 and 50 miles per hour and possibly small hail with the storm cells. 
Taf sites least likely to be affected by storms this evening and 
tonight should be ktcc and kfmn. There may be a few more storms 
lingering a little longer after sunset in the area from just east 
of the Central Mountain chain to the vicinity of the Continental 
Divide as a weak surface trough/windshift line that moved westward 
across the eastern plains earlier this morning lingers for awhile 
tonight in the vicinity of or a little west of the Rio Grande 
Valley. Spotty sections of the eastern plains near and to the 
south of Interstate 40 as well as along the east slopes of the 
Central Mountain chain may see MVFR or IFR conditions due more to 
low ceilings than fog. 


Next aviation discussion scheduled for 09z. 43 


&& 


Fire weather... 
widely scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorms will 
continue to develop and move to the south from the higher terrain 
and immediately adjacent lowlands into middle evening with activity 
decreasing later on. But there may be a few more storms 
lingering a little longer after sunset from just east of the 
Central Mountain chain to the vicinity of the Continental Divide 
as a weak surface windshift boundary that moved into this area 
earlier today lingers for awhile tonight. The storms will be wet 
across eastern and most of central Mexico with a few more wet/dry 
hybrids farther west. The least activity this evening at least now 
looks to be across the eastern plains. There may be a few late 
tonight there. Earlier advertised decrease in moisture in the northwest 
third or so of the state is looking a little less likely for the 
weekend...but not out of the question...as low level moisture 
keeps trying to flux in from the east and south at times. 
Nighttime relative humidity recoveries should remain very good to excellent 
eastern areas and vary from fair to very good west...the better 
recoveries generally in areas that receive rain the evening or 
afternoon previous. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Farmington...................... 61 98 63 96 / 0 0 0 10 
Gallup.......................... 54 92 57 91 / 0 5 5 10 
Grants.......................... 56 92 57 90 / 10 5 10 10 
Glenwood........................ 61 94 64 96 / 10 20 10 20 
Chama........................... 43 83 45 85 / 10 30 5 30 
Los Alamos...................... 54 85 56 87 / 30 10 20 10 
Red River....................... 40 77 40 80 / 10 10 5 20 
Taos............................ 49 88 51 90 / 10 10 5 10 
Santa Fe........................ 57 89 58 89 / 30 10 10 10 
Santa Fe Airport................ 56 91 58 91 / 30 5 10 10 
Espanola........................ 55 94 57 96 / 20 5 10 10 
Albuquerque heights............. 67 92 68 95 / 30 5 10 5 
Albuquerque valley.............. 64 94 64 95 / 30 5 5 5 
Albuquerque foothills........... 62 90 63 92 / 30 5 10 5 
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 65 93 66 96 / 30 5 5 5 
Socorro......................... 62 93 63 94 / 10 5 5 5 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 51 83 52 86 / 40 5 10 5 
Moriarty/Estancia............... 54 88 54 90 / 30 5 10 5 
Carrizozo....................... 59 90 60 94 / 5 5 5 5 
Ruidoso......................... 52 81 53 84 / 10 5 5 5 
Raton........................... 53 88 53 92 / 20 5 5 5 
Las Vegas....................... 52 85 53 87 / 30 10 5 10 
Roy............................. 59 86 60 89 / 10 5 0 5 
Clayton......................... 62 91 63 94 / 10 5 0 0 
Santa Rosa...................... 60 92 61 93 / 10 5 0 5 
Tucumcari....................... 65 95 66 97 / 5 5 0 0 
Fort Sumner..................... 65 92 66 94 / 10 5 0 0 
Clovis.......................... 63 92 63 94 / 10 0 0 0 
Portales........................ 65 91 65 94 / 10 0 0 0 
Roswell......................... 67 94 67 96 / 10 0 0 0 


&& 


Abq watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


Shy/43 

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