576 
fxus64 kepz 130947 
afdepz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm 
347 am MDT Monday Oct 13 2008 


Synopsis... 
dry conditions with mostly clear skies will occur today as part of 
a southwest flow ahead of a low pressure system located over 
Arizona. A cold front will move into the region early Tuesday 
morning. This will bring much cooler temperatures and clouds to 
the region. Light rain showers may occur for regions east of the 
Rio Grande Tuesday through Wednesday. Dry conditions and warmer 
temperatures will occur Thursday and Friday as high pressure 
builds over the state. Moisture will return to the region late 
Saturday and Sunday with a slight chance of showers possible 
Sunday and Monday. 


&& 


Discussion... 
dry air continues to flow into the forecast area today as part of 
a southwest flow ahead of a trough in Arizona. This will result in 
mostly clear skies and southwest winds over much of the area 
today. A cold front will move into the area tonight during the 
early morning hours. This will shift the winds around to the north 
and east with much cooler temperatures expected on Tuesday. With 
the southwest flow aloft...a weak overrunning pattern will occur 
on Tuesday that should generate low level cloudiness and light 
rain or drizzle...mainly for areas east of the Rio Grande. 


The low will lift out of the area late Tuesday while the frontal 
boundary lingers into Wednesday. Expect continued cloudiness and 
below normal temperatures with a potential for very light rain 
continuing into Wednesday. Warmer temperatures and drier 
conditions will occur Thursday and Friday as high pressure aloft 
will build over the state. Subsidence from the high will suppress 
cloud and rain development both days. 


For next weekend...models are projecting the high pressure ridge 
to weaken and shift eastward. This will allow the return of sub 
tropical moisture from the south during the weekend. An upper 
level trough approaching from the west will provide forcing and 
lift for a chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday and next 
Monday. 


&& 


Aviation...valid 13/1200z-14/1200z... 
VFR conditions expected through the day with mostly clear skies. 
Winds will be mainly from the southwest through the day. A cold 
front will move into the region tonight with a shift in winds 
from the north and east anticipated. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
a drier air mass continues to flow in from the west with the 
lowest relative humidities expected west of the Rio Grande. A cold 
front will drop south through the state tonight and tomorrow. An 
associated cooler air mass will raise relative humidity... 
especially east of the river. Dense low level clouds and a light 
drizzle or rain may be possible for eastern zones Tuesday. Clouds 
and light rain may spread west along the frontal boundary on 
Wednesday. High pressure will build Thursday and Friday with 
warmer temperatures and fewer clouds expected. Sub tropical 
moisture will return to the region late Saturday through Monday 
with higher relative humidity and increased chances for rain 
possible Sunday and Monday. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
El Paso 79 53 73 51 69 / 0 20 20 20 20 
Sierra Blanca Texas 81 51 64 49 68 / 0 30 20 20 20 
Las Cruces 76 50 72 48 69 / 0 10 10 10 20 
Alamogordo 76 49 70 45 67 / 0 20 20 20 10 
Cloudcroft 55 32 49 28 53 / 0 30 30 20 10 
Truth or Consequences 75 45 70 48 69 / 0 10 10 10 10 
Silver City 66 38 66 43 66 / 0 0 0 10 10 
Deming 74 47 72 48 68 / 0 10 10 10 20 
Lordsburg 77 45 75 49 73 / 0 0 0 0 10 


&& 


Epz watches/warnings/advisories... 
nm...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


04/04