275 
fxus63 kgld 232352 
afdgld 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas 
552 PM MDT Wednesday Jul 23 2008 


Discussion...few changes to the persistent pattern are in store 
for the County Warning Area over the next seven days as the region remains under a 
subtropical ridge. The bottom line is for continued middle to upper 
90/low 100 degree high temperatures with few opportunities for measurable 
precipitation. 


Apart from late this afternoon and early evening where an 
inverted surface trough over eastern Colorado will serve to initiate short-lived, 
isolated, high based, deep moist convection, over the next 48 to 
72 hours several low amplitude shortwave troughs will translate 
along the northern periphery of the upper Air Ridge inducing cirrus along and 
north of a quasi-stationary front. The front currently bisects the 
eastern flank of the County Warning Area and will mix diurnally north/south through 
Friday. At the present time current nwp forecasts depict the best shot 
for precipitation to occur late Friday afternoon into the overnight hours 
after the aforementioned front moves south toward the I-70 
corridor. It appears the convection will develop over NE Colorado/SW NE 
and propagate east-southeast through the overnight hours. I left the 
inherited low chance probability of precipitation in order to remain isc friendly. For 
Sat, it still appears for another chances of afternoon evening 
thunderstorms and rain as depicted by most of the various nwp products, but areal coverage 
appears less compared to Friday evening. 


Otherwise, only minor temp, and cloud cover adjustments were 
warranted to the extended forecast. HPC grids were utilized for days 
5 through 7. 


05 


&& 


Aviation...for the 00z taf...the main concern is a convective 
outflow boundary moving across Kit Carson County. The boundary is 
moving east at 35 miles per hour...and winds behind the boundary are gusting 
near 45 knots. There is a possibility that the boundary will reach 
kgld...but gradient winds ahead of the boundary are pretty stiff 
from the south. Did not mention the wind shift in the kgld 
taf...but will monitor closely. Otherwise...VFR conditions with 
south winds 15-25 knot will occur at kgld/kmck. 


&& 


Gld watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kansas...none. 
NE...none. 
Colorado...none. 
&& 


$$