409 
fxus63 kgid 111058 cca 
afdgid 


Area forecast discussion...corrected 
National Weather Service Hastings NE 
453 am CDT Sat Oct 11 2008 


Discussion...the early morning weather map showed a very sharp cold 
front draped across the Hastings County warning forecast area. At 09z the front stretched from 
around Fullerton...to just west of Grand Island...and then into the 
Phillipsburg/Stockton area. Shortly after midnight...the front stalled 
like a Powder River basin Coal train...but now is showing signs of 
moving a bit more with minimal pressure rises noted. Temperature 
contrast across the front anywhere from 12 to 15 degrees. Low 
clouds are trailing the front about 60 miles...and have inched 
into the far western/northwest County warning forecast area. Warm advection as seen on VAD 
profilers has spawned some middle clouds...and now signs of a sprinkle 
or two just east of the County warning forecast area. 


Today Marks the beginning of the expected more active weather 
pattern for the County warning forecast area thanks to the slow developing upper level low 
over the western United States. Models continue to slow the 
progression of upper level features...and that may be on track 
with 00z upper air analysis showing 140m at ksfo on the southwest 
side of the upper circulation. Low level moisture is 
improving...and will substantially improve by evening and precipitable water 
increase to in excess of 1.5 inches. Such precipitable water values are 3 to 4 
times normal...and have been a harbinger of heavy precipitation 
events the past 2 to 3 years in the fall and early winter /see 
just last week...October 2007...and the ice storms of December 
2006/. 


Temperatures are tricky for today...as the front will Divide above normal 
temperatures to the east...and much below normal temperatures to the 
west. We could easily see a 30 degree range today as Gothenburg struggles 
to 50...and Hebron may approach 80. With this in mind... rolled the 
Dice down the 281 corridor roughly as the dividing line from warm to 
cold...although realize the fact temperatures forecast could easily 
bust at any one location near the frontal boundary. Interesting 
thing tonight is surge of moisture and warm air to the northwest...with 
models depicting dewpoints well into the 50s west up to the eastern 
Nebraska Panhandle. That could result in steady/warming temperatures 
tonight for far western zones. Sunday will be below normal thanks 
to rain/clouds...and windy. Eventually much colder air will push 
through the County warning forecast area Sunday evening. Temperatures about 20 degrees 
below normal are likely Monday. 


Precipitation today/tonight will be tied to developing warm 
advection...strong moisture transport/surge...and h25 jet streak 
forecast to slip through South Dakota putting the County warning forecast area in the 
favored divergent region aloft. Similar conditions exist through 
early Sunday...after which frontogenetic forcing strengthens as 
cold air starts to invade. That will enhance precipitation 
coverage Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Its going to rain per 
previous afd...with the eastern far eastern County warning forecast area will be the last 
for widespread rain. As mentioned...overall column of moisture 
will be impressive by tonight. Confidence is buoyed by widespread 
1 to 2 inch model quantitative precipitation forecast forecasts...with even more rain forecast by 
HPC. 


So...another widespread rain event is expected for the County warning forecast area... 
especially Sunday/Sunday night. Sharply colder temperatures are 
expected Monday...with below normal temperatures lingering into 
midweek. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 1248 am CDT Sat Oct 11 2008/ 


Aviation...06z taf. Tough aviation forecast with regards to how 
stratus will evolve overnight into the morning hours...and in 
particular whether it will make it into the kgri area. Surface 
front has been approaching the terminal from the northwest and is 
almost sitting on top of the terminal at this time. This front is 
prognosticated to stall out near its current location...which will keep 
it very near the kgri terminal through the night. Winds will be 
variable with the boundary nearby...but main concern is whether 
stratus to the west will move or develop eastward into the kgri 
area. Thus far the stratus has consistently been lagging the front 
by about 60 to 70 miles and given that the front is forecast to 
stall right over the terminal...currently thinking the stratus 
will remain west and thus have kept it out of the forecast. 
However...will keep a close eye on conditions and amend if 
necessary as conditions will change sharply over a short distance 
from low ceilings to clear skies. May see a few lower clouds after 
sunrise but Don/T think there will be any ceilings with these. Middle and 
high clouds will increase during the day and winds will become 
southeasterly as the front lifts back northwest. A threat for 
showers arrives during the afternoon...and continues through the 
evening hours. 


&& 


Gid watches/warnings/advisories... 
NE...none. 
Kansas...none. 
&& 


$$