031 
fxus63 kgid 131112 
afdgid 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Hastings NE 
612 am CDT Monday Oct 13 2008 


Aviation...12z kgri taf...most of the precipitation has ended. One more 
band to be around the terminal at 12 to 14z...after that...rain 
should be pretty much over. Ceilings around bkn015 should hold until 
middle morning then be broken-sct015 ovc035. By midday...conditions should 
continue to improve with some breaks in overcast expected and VFR 
conditions with ceilings broken-sct035 bkn080. Winds to be from the 
north-northwest at 15kts gusting to 20-24 kts through the morning. 
The gusts should end by afternoon and continue to decrease during 
the day. Light winds and some scattered middle clouds aoa120 expected 
overnight. Kisner 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 446 am CDT Monday Oct 13 2008/ 


Discussion...at 09z...the surface front was almost through the 
entire County warning forecast area...with only areas along and ahead of a Hebron to Beloit 
line having yet to share in the 20 degree temperature drop and brisk 
northwest wind. The front has some fairly solid 2-3mb pressure rises 
so it should progress further for some time. After several hours 
of widespread rainfall...we have the seen the annihilation of Post frontal 
precipitation down to drizzle/light showers. The only substantial 
rain left was ahead of the rain. It appears additional rainfall the 
rest of the morning will be minimal. As a result...latest forecast 
accelerates the end of rainfall from west to east...and maybe not 
fast enough. Also kicked in clearing skies quicker as most recent 
model runs suggest strong downglide...overall period of downward 
motion...and much drier air will result in clouds making a quick 
exit over a large part of the County warning forecast area. Despite any sun which may 
develop...temperatures will struggle for 50 degrees with cold 
advection all day. 


Clearing in at least the northern 2/3rds of the County warning forecast area tonight will 
team with dropping dewpoints...and weak ridge axis of light winds 
to bring near to sub freezing temperatures for parts of the area. 
Through we are past normal freeze dates in the northwest County warning forecast area... 
lack of solid freeze has been evident...and feel a freeze watch 
allows for some wiggle room in terms of temperatures tonight 
and potentially freeze warning/frost advisory locations. Though 
recent rain and warm ground temperatures could negate things... 
think at least 32 degrees is fairly good bet north of roughly 
Highway 30. Frosty conditions just to the south with temperatures 
in the middle 30s. 


With regard to precipitation chances tonight....at this point... 
am trying to mesh with offices just to the south...and thats about 
it. Really think rainfall for most of tonight will be south of the 
County warning forecast area. That is more likely to change as the day wears on Tuesday 
and into Tuesday night...when the remaining upper level energy 
lifts out and the southern County warning forecast area gets under a favorable right 
rear quadrant of an h250 jet. Tried to sharpen up the rain/no rain 
gradient some...as the northwest County warning forecast area may not get much. Not a lot 
of other significant events to mention. 


Previous discussion... /issued 1210 am CDT Monday Oct 13 2008/ 


Aviation...06z kgri taf. Ongoing precipitation event with 
MVFR/IFR ceilings/visibility is clearly the main focus for at 
least the first half of this period...as a strong cold front 
passes through the region. This front should arrive at kgri at the 
very start of this taf period...with winds turning northwest and 
gusting over 20kts. Periods of light to moderate rain should 
persist well into Monday with ceilings primarily IFR...but 
generally varying between 500 and 1500 feet...along with mainly MVFR 
visibilities. Adjustments will likely be needed regarding the end 
of precipitation and a return to VFR conditions...but will shoot 
for middle afternoon at this point. By Monday evening...clearing 
should be well underway with only light northwest breezes. 


&& 


Gid watches/warnings/advisories... 
NE...freeze watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for 
nez039>041-046>048-060>062-072-073-082. 


Kansas...none. 
&& 


$$