788 
fxus61 krnk 211910 
afdrnk 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Blacksburg Virginia 
310 PM EDT Thursday Aug 21 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will keep conditions on the dry but cool side 
through the weekend. A cold front will approach and move into the 
area early next week. The remnants of Fay may bring moisture to 
the region by the middle of next week. 


&& 


Near term /through Friday/... 
latest satellite pictures show scattered to broken stratocumulus 
across the forecast area with isolated showers in the area of 
slightly stronger upslope from the North Carolina foothills across 
to Bluefield. 


High pressure will remain wedged in east of the Appalachians through 
Sunday morning. Stratus is expected to develop again overnight but 
not be as widespread as Thursday morning. It will be confined to 
along and east of the Blue Ridge south of Roanoke. Have raised 
minimum temperatures tonight...going above guidance and lower than 
mav guidance for highs on Friday in the area expected to have clouds 
from late tonight into Friday morning. The rest of the County 
Warning Area will have a more typical diurnal temperature trend. 


&& 


Short term /Friday night through Sunday/... 
our weather pattern will not experience much change during this 
period. A wedge of high pressure along the Lee side of the central 
Appalachians will strengthen as we progress into the weekend. The 
current easterly flow into our region will gradually become more 
southeast to eventually south during the weekend. The result will be 
overnight development of stratus becoming more confined to the 
northern mountains of North Carolina. Still expecting no more than a 
sprinkle or two associated with the clouds so will continue with a 
precipitation free forecast through the period. By Sunday...we will 
have to start looking towards our northwest with the approach of a 
cold front. Believe any associated precipitation will hold off 
through Sunday. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/... 
much like yesterdays uncertainty...we still are faced with how 
much...and when...moisture associated with what will be the remnants 
of Fay get associated with the approaching cold front. The latest 
guidance trends suggest that the two events will be unique. The cold 
front will reach our area with limited moisture in place...and 
provide for of isolated to scattered showers and storms in the 
mountains...with downsloping flow preventing much activity east of 
the Blue Ridge through the Tuesday time frame. 


Tuesday through Thursday the remnants of Fay are currently prognosticated 
to lift north out of the Gulf Coast states and into the 
Appalachians. The forecast will reflect increase probability of precipitation to around 30 
or 40 percent by Wednesday with just slightly less probability of precipitation on Thursday. 
Just how the remnants interact with the topography or what becomes 
of a washed out or stalled cold front from Monday/Tuesday could 
become a factor in any areas of heavy rainfall. 


&& 


Aviation /19z Thursday through Tuesday/... 
high pressure will remain wedged in east of the Appalachians 
through Sunday morning. Ceilings will continue to improve this 
afternoon with all sites VFR by 01z. 


Stratus is expected to develop again overnight but not be as 
widespread as Thursday morning. IFR to MVFR will be confined to 
along and east of th Blue Ridge south of Roanoke. May be close but 
for now left mvr ceilings out of kblf/kdan/kroa for early Friday 
morning. Also kept in the patchy MVFR fog for Friday morning at 
klwb. 


Continued overall persistence VFR conditions through the weekend 
with ts Fay moisture well to the south...the next cold front will 
approach the area from the northwest on Monday or Tuesday. 


&& 


Rnk watches/warnings/advisories... 
Virginia...none. 
NC...none. 
WV...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...ds 
near term...air mass 
short term...ds 
long term...ds 
aviation...air mass