290 
fxus62 kmhx 240220 
afdmhx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 
1020 PM EDT Wednesday Jul 23 2008 


Synopsis... 
a weak cold front will move slowly east across North Carolina 
tonight. The front will be over eastern North Carolina on Thursday 
and serve as focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Then push 
off the coast late Thursday/early Friday. Another cold front will 
approach the area Sunday then stall across the region Monday and 
Tuesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/... 
there is a brief lull in shower and thunderstorm activity over the 
past hour or two but expect an increase after midnight as a cold 
front approaches from the west. A solid line of storms presently 
across central NC between the Triangle and traid will continue to 
push east and will maintain likely probability of precipitation through the overnight. 
Made minor changes to temperature grids to capture trends with rain 
cooled air across most of the coastal plain otherwise forecast 
looks in good shape. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Friday/... 
NAM and GFS both show front pushing off the coast late Thursday 
night/early Friday. So will follow suit and hold onto chance 
probability of precipitation through Thursday evening. On Friday both models indicate that 
the flow will return to the south with weak surface high building in. 
Have opted to keep Friday dry for now...if anything activity looks 
to be isolated. High temperatures Thursday and Friday will be mainly 
in the upper 80s. Lows will be in the upper 60s/lower 70s inland and 
lower 70s/middle 70s along the coast. 


&& 


Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/... 
with the pattern remaining blocked...the eastern US trough will 
remain in place and is forecasted to amplify over the 
weekend...then another cold front will move into the area Sunday 
and stall over the area into early next week with a threat for 
showers and thunderstorms...especially during the afternoon and 
evenings. 


&& 


Aviation /02z Thursday through Monday/... 
mainly VFR with current lull in precipitation but more approaching upstream 
for overnight. Period of IFR visibilities/ceilings possible with next round of 
precipitation later tonight...gradually becoming MVFR/VFR on Thursday. 


Scattered activity possible with front stalling Thursday night and Friday. Return to 
mainly VFR rest of period with pattern returning to offshore 
high/inland trough. 


&& 


Marine... 
Small Craft Advisory for all waters overnight. Sounds are marginal Small Craft Advisory conds holdig 
in there for eastern portions. 4-6 feet seas lingering over coastal 
waters through Thursday morning. Winds will gradually diminish Thursday and Thursday 
night with front stalling just west and north of area then dissipating Friday 
and Friday night. SW winds increase again over weekend with return of 
offshore high/inland trough but should stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria. 


Ww3 seas about a foot too high this afternoon and adjusted accordingly 
for forecast. 


Rip currents...southeast swell will continue on Thursday but S-SW winds will be 
diminishing...leading to moderate threat all beaches. 


&& 


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... 
NC...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 6 am EDT Thursday for amz130-135. 
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for amz152-154. 
Small Craft Advisory until 11 am EDT Thursday for amz150-156- 
158. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...cqd 
near term...sk 
short term...cqd 
long term...cqd 
aviation...btc 
marine...btc