674 
fxus62 kmhx 040215 
afdmhx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 
1015 PM EDT Thursday Jul 3 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will continue offshore today through the middle part 
of next week. A weak front will stall well to the north of the area 
Saturday then dissipate Sunday into Monday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/... 
diurnal cumulus has dissipated after sunset with mainly high clouds 
continuing off the coast. The seabreeze pushed well inland today 
and a light breeze persisted well into the evening...especially 
along the coastal plain but winds are beginning to subside over 
the past hour. Periods of light mixing may continue overnight but 
with dewpoints in the low to middle 60s expect most locations away 
from the water will see enough decoupling to have temperatures drop into 
the upper 60s. Lowered min temperatures several degrees more in line with 
a GFS/NAM MOS average. Otherwise mainly clear skies are expected 
overnight and rest of forecast looks in good shape. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Friday morning through Friday night/... 
moisture will slowly increase across the area in the short term 
which will only temper highs a degree or two with highs in the 
middle/upper 80s beaches and Outer Banks and low/middle 90s inland. 
Overnight lows will be a bit warmer with increasing moisture with 
low to middle 70s expected areawide. Airmass will still be relatively 
dry with little chance for organized sea breeze activity as 
forcing will be minimal despite steep low level lapse rates and 
increasing instability. Will keep probability of precipitation below 15 percent on Friday but 
an isolated rain showers or ts is still possible during peak 
heating...especially over southern zones where low level 
confluence will be greater. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday through Thursday/... 
short wave trough amplifies over the Great Lakes on Sat with a 
pre frontal trough setting up over the Piedmont region by Sat 
afternoon. Low level moisture will continue to increase over the 
weekend and with the approaching middle/upper trough we will see an 
increasing chance for afternoon/evening rain showers/ts activity along the 
sea breeze and along the pre frontal trough to the west. Best 
chance for precipitation appears to be Sunday when better forcing will be 
present ahead of the advancing short wave. 


Western Atlantic surface ridge will re-establish itself over the southeast 
states with models indicating a weakness in the ridge further 
north over NC extending north into Virginia with broad middle/upper level 
troughing from New England south into the middle Atlantic. This 
should keep a threat for mainly diurnal convection through the 
extended period. Highs upper 80s to lower 90s inland to the 
middle/upper 80s near the beaches. Overnight lows low to middle 70s 
areawide. 


&& 


Aviation /02z Friday through Tuesday/... 
patches of cirrus over the County Warning Area at the moment...but in general...VFR 
conditions will continue over the terminals through tonight with 
light S/SW winds. 


Front approaching from the west will increase clouds 
on Saturday with MVFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms 
Saturday afternoon into Tuesday. 


&& 


Marine... 
as has been the case the past couple of nights...we are seeing an 
increased gradient in the evening...especially over the northern 
waters...due to a weak trough inland extending from New Jersey 
into the Carolinas...with high pressure ridging west from Bermuda. 
Winds in the 15 to 20 knots range over the northern leg and have 
updated forecast to reflect this. No additional updates anticipated at 
this time...as this wind should diminish later on tonight. 


SW flow to increase further on Sat as a surface cold front 
approaches. Should see winds pick up to the 15 to 20 knots range by 
Sun afternoon with seas 3 to 4 feet. Light to moderate S/SW flow sun 
through early next week with Bermuda ridge anchored offshore. Seas 
will average 3 to 5 feet through the period. 


Otherwise...worthy to long period swell out into the tropical 
Atlantic forerunner future note. Pressure gradient circulation 
around "bertha" and sprawling Atlantic surface high pressure will 
only enhance a long period (14-17 sec) southern hemisphere swell 
that was already on it's long journeyed way up this way several 
days ago. This due in part to several areas of low pressure (996mb, 
976mb, 968mb) sitting and spinning off the Lower Bottom-half of the 
South American/South African coastlines. GFS-induced osbw04/09 wave 
model numbers clearly depict aforementioned 3-pronged meteorological 
long period east-southeast swell attack (albeit 1-3 foot rolling small...but 
wave heights could grow in time depending on how close "bertha" 
wants to longitude line traverse) impacting the North Carolina coast 
by middle to latter week next week. Perfect 3-way long period storm 
scenario one might finally end up and say. 


&& 


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... 
NC...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...jw 
near term...sk 
short term...jw 
long term...jw 
aviation...ctc/clq 
marine...ctc/clq/gc