210 
fxus62 kmhx 062046 
afdmhx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 
446 PM EDT Monday Oct 6 2008 


Synopsis... 
a strong reinforcing cold front will cross the area tonight 
with strong high pressure building over the region through 
Wednesday. Low pressure will approach from the southwest 
Wednesday night and bring increasing prospects for rain 
to the area Thursday through Friday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/... 
a cold front will push through the region overnight. Not expecting 
any precipitation with limited moisture but will see a northerly surge of winds. 
Sufficient mixing and a drier airmass moving in will prevent fog 
from developing but also prevent temperatures from bottoming out. Expect 
lows in the m50s inland to m60s coast. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through Wednesday/... 
strong high pressure will build into the region from the north Tuesday and 
slide offshore Wednesday. Cold air advection continues Tuesday and highs will generally 
be in the l/m70s. With high centered over the region Tuesday night 
expect good radiational cooling and light wind allowing temperatures to 
fall into the u40s/l50s inland to around 60 coastside. Return flow 
develops Wednesday with high offshore but clouds will begin to increase 
from the SW in the afternoon as a storm system approaches. This 
will prevent maximum heating and maximum temperatures expected in the M/u70. 


&& 


Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/... 
confidence still poor in progression of next trough of low pressure. 
Both GFS and European model (ecmwf) develop a cutoff low Wednesday night and Thursday across 
the southeast. However the GFS is more progressive absorbing the low back 
into the southwesterly flow aloft by Friday night with weak high pressure building 
in from the east over the weekend. The European model (ecmwf)...which has been the 
preferred model over the past several days...keeps the cutoff low 
across the southeast with a Rex block developing as an upper ridge builds 
across the rest of the East Coast. The European model (ecmwf) solution continues to 
bring moist Ely flow across the region with surface high pressure ridging 
S along the East Coast setting up a potential cad event. With such 
low confidence made minimal changes to the extended grids keeping 
high chance probability of precipitation Thursday through Friday and only slight chance over the 
weekend. Temperatures look to be near normal through the period. 


&& 


Aviation /20z Monday through Saturday/... 
cold front will cross overnight with strong high building in from 
the north. Shld be enough of a gradient/light breeze late to keep fog 
development limited so have no worse than MVFR. Forecast sounding not 
indicating much low level moisture so think any SC will remain scattered late 
tonight. VFR expected Tuesday into Wednesday as the high builds over the 
region. Starting Wednesday night and continue into the weekend will have at 
least scattered precipitation over the area as low pressure approaches and slowly 
moves across. Will likely see periods of MVFR and some IFR will be poss. 


&& 


Marine... 
reinforcing high pressure will build across the region tonight into 
Tuesday. 12z models have backed off north/NE winds for later tonight into 
Tuesday. Although marginal will keep previous Small Craft Advisory headlines up as 
could see gusts at or above 25 kts at times and seas will build to around 
6 feet most outer waters early Tuesday. Did delay slightly onset of Small Craft Advisory 
and ended it a bit earlier. The high will quickly build S toward 
the region Tuesday night and this will lead to decreasing winds/seas. 
High just to the north Wednesday with winds at or below 15 kts and seas at or below 4 feet. 


Models continue to differ with next approaching upper/surface low. GFS continues 
to be more progressive than preferred slower emcwf solution. Will 
have a period of decent southeast winds Thursday into Friday that could build 
seas close to Small Craft Advisory levels espcly central/southern waters. Low/front expected 
to drift across Friday and continue near region into Sat. Went close to 
emcwf for wind direction with Erly winds and seas mainly 3 to 5 feet 
Friday into Sat. 


&& 


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... 
NC...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 5 am to 11 am EDT Tuesday for amz135. 
Small Craft Advisory from 5 am to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for amz150- 
152-154-156. 
Small Craft Advisory from 8 am to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for amz158. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...sk 
near term...sk 
short term...sk 
long term...sk 
aviation...rf 
marine...rf