409 
fxus61 krnk 111049 
afdrnk 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Blacksburg Virginia 
649 am EDT Sat Oct 11 2008 


Synopsis... 
low pressure will remain about stationary today off the southeast 
coast. High pressure will build in from the north today and remain 
entrenched across the area into early next week. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
dry air will continue to surge into the forecast area today. Latest 
lav guidance clear out the clouds early this morning but still 
shows maximum temperatures cooler than the mav guidance. Have 
trended highs toward to warmer numbers. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Tuesday night/... 
high pressure over New York today builds south and by Monday evening 
will be centered over North Carolina. Low level east to southeast 
winds will gradually diminish as the high moves south. 


By Tuesday the winds are coming around to the southwest and west. 
Have added more clouds over the northwest North Carolina mountains 
and foothills since the models are showing increased moisture below 
850 mb baked up against the Blue Ridge on Sunday night. 


A large upper ridge over the Ohio Valley will keep the airmass mild 
through Tuesday. While temperatures will be above normal...record 
highs are not likely...see climate section below. 


Clouds will be increasing ahead of the approaching cold front on 
Tuesday night and still using the slightly slower European model (ecmwf) with the 
timing of the frontal passage on Wednesday night. 


&& 


Long term /Wednesday through Friday/... 
Ridge continues to stay in place Tuesday followed by a breakdown 
midweek as the flow becomes zonal while shortwave passes by over 
northern plains/Great Lakes. A front will make its way toward US Wednesday- 
Thursday with the ridge being suppressed southeast. However...another 
wave of low pressure moving across the middle miss valley stalls the 
front over the Ohio Valley-middle Atlantic into Thursday night...so only 
keeping slight chance probability of precipitation over the far west Thursday-Thursday night. The 
front pushes through Friday per 00z European model (ecmwf) with a slightly better 
chance of showers...although flow remains more in the dry west to 
southwest direction. 


Pattern looks to be changing back to a trough in the east next 
weekend with a return to cool Fall weather. 


&& 


Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
expect MVFR fog this morning at klwb and mountains obscuration 
due to IFR/MVFR ceilings in northwest North Carolina...with quick 
improvements at both locations after sunrise. Conditions will be 
VFR for the rest of the forecast period. 


A large high will build south into the area on Sunday and Monday 
keeping the region in a dry airmass. This will bring widespread 
VFR conditions from this afternoon through the weekend...outside of 
early morning fog along area rivers. 


An approaching cold front may bring MVFR showers into the mountains 
Wednesday or Thursday. 


&& 


Climate... 
Oct 13 record highs 


Roa 89 in 1954 
lyh 89 in 1954 
Dan 92 in 1954 
blf 81 in 1969 
rnk 83 in 1954 


Oct 14 record highs 
roa 86 in 1941 
lyh 85 in 1985 
Dan 86 in 1954 
blf 81 in 1989 
rnk 84 in 1962 


&& 


Rnk watches/warnings/advisories... 
Virginia...none. 
NC...none. 
WV...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...kk 
near term...air mass 
short term...air mass 
long term...wp 
aviation...ams/kk/km 
climate...air mass