891 
fxus64 kmeg 040305 
afdmeg 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee 
1005 PM CDT Thursday Jul 3 2008 


Update...increased overnight lows a bit across northeast 
Mississippi. Otherwise...forecast is in good shape. 






&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 324 PM CDT Thursday Jul 3 2008/ 


Discussion... 
mostly sunny skies and dry conditions continue over the midsouth 
this afternoon as temperatures have reached the upper 80s to 
lower 90s across the area. A few thunderstorms have developed 
across central Arkansas this afternoon but otherwise any 
development of convection has been few and far between. 


Cold front across central Missouri and Illinois will begin to make 
its way south towards the area overnight. Low level jet will 
increase over the area keeping low temperatures in the upper 60s 
and low 70s tonight. Confidence is somewhat low on rain chances for 
tonight but think moisture will continue to increase as the above 
mentioned cold front sinks south. As a result...the best chances 
for storms will be across areas north of Interstate 40 through the 
morning hours. 


Upper trough will begin to dig across the middle Mississippi and Ohio 
River valleys on Friday helping to push the surface cold front 
further south into the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms 
are expected off and on throughout the day with the best chance of 
rain once again north of Interstate 40. High temperatures will be 
very dependant on cloud cover and where convection develops so 
sided closely with MOS guidance. 


Cold front will continue to slide south into north Mississippi 
Friday night taking the best chance of rain with it. Loss of 
daytime heating may keep convection under control Friday night but 
by Saturday...more scattered showers and thunderstorms will 
develop. This front looks to get hung up across the forecast area 
Saturday and Sunday but eventually wash out by Sunday night. In 
the meantime though....scattered showers and thunderstorms will be 
possible especially across north Mississippi during this time 
frame. 


Dry conditions look to return on Monday as temperatures in the 90s 
make their way back into the area. A typical summertime pattern 
develops Tuesday through Thursday as afternoon and evening showers 
and thunderstorms can be expected. For right now...the best 
chances for convection will be east of the Mississippi River where 
lift and moisture will be the greatest. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
mem 72 90 72 89 / 40 50 30 30 
mkl 69 88 69 88 / 40 60 30 30 
jbr 71 90 70 90 / 50 60 30 20 
tup 69 90 69 90 / 20 40 40 40 


&& 


Meg watches/warnings/advisories... 
Arkansas...none. 
MO...none. 
MS...none. 
Tennessee...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Ccd/kns