312 
fxus64 kjan 211517 aaa 
afdjan 


Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Jackson MS 
1017 am CDT Thursday Aug 21 2008 


Discussion...made a few quick minor adjustments to the forecast this 
morning. Water vapor imagery shows the upper low which has been 
sitting over north central Texas the past couple days is beginning to 
shift to the north northeast. This will allow for a slight decrease 
in shower and thunderstorm activity for today. Surface observations 
continue to show southerly flow over the County warning forecast area. Tropical Storm Fay is 
still currently located off the East Coast of Florida. Cloud cover this 
morning over the County warning forecast area is minimal...with cloudy conditions nearly 
surrounding the County warning forecast area except to the south. This has allowed 
temperatures to warm slightly quicker than expected. Cloud cover is 
expected to increase over the County warning forecast area with showers and a few 
thunderstorms developing as well. This will begin to slow warming 
over the County warning forecast area by the late morning into the early afternoon. Have 
raised high temperatures by a degree or two and have adjusted hourly 
temperatures accordingly. 


Radar imagery shows shower and thunderstorms activity to the 
southwest of the County warning forecast area that is slowly drifting north northeast. This 
activity should begin to drift into southwestern portions of the County warning forecast area 
over the next few hours and activity over at least western portions 
of the County warning forecast area will increase in coverage as well. The chances of seeing 
rain will be less over the eastern half of the County warning forecast area as the upper low 
is lifting north...but can not rule out the possibility of seeing 
some isolated to scattered activity during the early afternoon into 
the evening hours. Most activity should die down after sunset this 
evening. Overall probability of precipitation looked reasonable but adjusted the timing of 
weather grids to indicate a later increase in coverage over the County warning forecast area 
for the afternoon hours. 


Otherwise the forecast looked pretty much on track through the 
remainder of the day. Updated products will be sent and posted to the 
web shortly. 




&& 


Aviation...hbg experienced some low clouds and dense fog early this 
morning...which broke up by 14z. Otherwise some scattered to broken 
middle to high ceilings was observed across the region. VFR conditions 
are expected to prevail through much of the day. Scattered showers 
and thunderstorms will again be possible for much of the region this 
afternoon and into the early evening hours...especially at sites 
located along and west of Interstate 55...kjan...kglh...and kgwo. 
Ceilings and visibilities will briefly be reduced to MVFR/IFR flight 
categories at sites where convection is observed. Some patchy fog 
will be possible at most locations on Friday morning...which could 
briefly lead to MVFR visibilities at most sites...except at hbg where 
some IFR ceilings and visibilities is expected after 09z. Any fog 
that develops in the morning...should dissipate by 14z...which will 
bring VFR conditions area wide. 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Jackson 90 70 90 71 / 45 36 33 27 
Meridian 92 70 90 71 / 37 32 30 42 
Vicksburg 91 70 91 71 / 54 32 32 21 
Hattiesburg 92 72 92 72 / 35 28 27 26 
Natchez 89 70 90 71 / 61 26 33 22 
Greenville 89 70 91 70 / 62 41 39 27 
Greenwood 89 70 90 70 / 59 43 40 31 


&& 


Jan watches/warnings/advisories... 
MS...none. 
La...none. 
Arkansas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


14/17