353 
fxus63 ksgf 211724 
afdsgf 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO 
1225 PM CDT Thursday Aug 21 2008 


Discussion... 


First period forecast looks right on track...and no adjustments were 
needed. 


Scattered light rain showers developed this morning in response to 
increasing Gulf moisture pulled in by a persistent upper level low. 
Due to low convective temperatures...any cloud breaks that form will 
fill in quickly...resulting in a Low Cape environment this 
afternoon. This will limit any potential for for increased frequency 
of storms...and also limit the strength of any developing updrafts. 


Cramer 


&& 


Aviation... 


Ceilings...precipitation...and visibilities were all aviation forecast 
challenges for the 18z tafs. The cut off upper level low continues 
to pull in copious amounts of Gulf moisture into southern 
Missouri...resulting in MVFR ceilings and scattered sprinkles/light 
rain showers. Due to the spotty nature of these light showers...I 
inserted a tempo mention of -ra. 


Observations across Oklahoma and Arkansas suggested that the late 
morning cumulus that developed had bases between 1500 - 2500 feet. 
Feel as though these MVFR ceilings will persist a good chunk of the 
24 hour taf period. However...there are some indications that 
ceilings could fall to IFR later tonight. 


Regarding visibilities...the rain showers should remain light enough 
for VFR visibilities. However...patchy fog will develop over 
southern Missouri tonight...creating MVFR fog at the Joplin and 
Springfield airports. Patchy IFR fog will occur in deeper valleys 
of the Ozark terrain. 


Cramer 


&& 


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories... 
MO...none. 
Kansas...none. 
&& 


$$