026 
fxus63 ksgf 111139 
afdsgf 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO 
639 am CDT Sat Oct 11 2008 


Discussion... 


The forecast highlights/challenges in this forecast package will 
continue to deal with mild conditions this weekend...then 
attention turns to precipitation chances and frontal passage time 
during the first half of the work week. 


Above normal temperatures can be expected today through Sunday 
night as the region remains in southwest flow ahead of an upper 
level low that will remain to the west of the area through the weekend. 
These southerly winds will allow 850 mb temperatures to warm into 
the middle teens both today and Sunday and according to 
conditional climatology will result in highs in the upper 70s to 
the lower 80s. The warmest temperatures will occur across the 
western County Warning Area where a few locations may warm into the middle 80s. The 
GFS MOS seems to have a warm bias...so have undercut these values 
by a few degrees...especially on Sunday when high level clouds 
will increase across the area and will likely keep highs cooler 
than the GFS MOS values. Low level winds will strengthen across 
the region today and Sunday ahead of the approaching storm 
system. With afternoon heating...these stronger winds will get 
mixed to the surface creating breezy and gusty 
conditions...especially Sunday afternoon across the western County Warning Area 
where gusts around 30 miles per hour will be possible. 


Have continued to prefer the slower European model (ecmwf) solution with the 
evolution of the Pacific northwest storm system in this package. 
The upper level low will slowly push off to the northeast this 
weekend into the start of the work week...moving into the northern 
Great Lakes region by Tuesday morning. An associated cold front 
will push east as the storm system moves to the northeast. The 
front will remain west of the area through Monday afternoon 
leaving the County Warning Area dry through this time. On Monday night...the 
front will begin to push into the western and northern portions of 
the County Warning Area...and will slowly drop south through the County Warning Area Tuesday into 
Wednesday. An upper level shortwave will push through the area on 
Wednesday which will help kick the front off to the southeast and 
out of the area...bringing an end to the precipitation. 


Another upper level shortwave will drop south into the area late 
this week into next weekend. A drier airmass will be in place 
ahead of this shortwave...which will limit the precipitation 
chances. This shortwave will bring cooler temperatures to the area 
for next weekend. 


Wise 




&& 


Aviation... 


Will continue the current wind trends in the tafs and 
increase winds to 10-12 knots with higher gusts a couple hours 
after sunrise when decent mixing commences under sunny skies. 
Swath of moisture around 20kft blowing off the top of Hurricane 
Norbert over the Baja California will gradually spread into the area this 
afternoon. 


For now we have a nocturnal low level jet setting up over Joplin. 
However based on the latest model data...we will probably need to 
spread the winds into Springfield as NAM time-height sections show 
30-40 knots just off the surface after 06z sun. 


Terry 
&& 


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories... 
MO...none. 
Kansas...none. 
&& 


$$