989 
fxus63 keax 131138 
afdeax 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 
638 am CDT Monday Oct 13 2008 


..updated aviation discussion... 




Discussion... 


Forecast appears to be on track. Cold front...along with showers and 
embedded thunderstorms continue to move toward the region this 
morning. Northern portion of the front will continue to move 
east...being tied to the low translating through the northern 
stream...while the southern portion remains anchored to the low over 
the Southern Plains. This causes the front to gradually tilt and 
become oriented northeast-southwest across the forecast area by this 
evening. Theta-E axis and 850mb winds focused along the front 
suggest periods of showers and embedded thunderstorms will remain 
possible through tonight...despite best upper level dynamics 
shifting both northeast of the region and southwest of the forecast 
area with the upper lows. As for temperatures...have gone with a 
non-diurnal temperature curve for today...as the cold front and 
precipitation gradually spread into the region. 


Areas of showers should continue Tuesday with another round of 
heavier showers expected to develop southwest of the region late 
Tuesday into Tuesday night...as the upper level system to the 
southwest begins to move northeast across the region. By this 
time...the system should get caught up in the northern stream 
thereby moving it more quickly across and then east of the forecast 
area late Tuesday night into Wednesday. 


Forecast area will generally be on the north side of the front 
Tuesday and with periods of showers and abundant cloud cover...have 
kept forecast highs on the low side. Will also see more cold air 
filter in across the region Tuesday night and Wednesday as fairly 
strong cold air advection develops. Would not be surprised to see 
areas of fog develop Wednesday night...as wet ground combines with 
light winds...clear skies and cool temperatures. 


Nrr 


&& 


Aviation... 


For the 12z tafs...VFR conditions and southerly winds will prevail 
at the terminals ahead of the front. However...once the front 
arrives and moves through conditions will deteriorate rapidly. 
Current timing has the front into kstj around 18z...with kmci at 22z 
and kmkc at 23z. Winds will change abruptly with the frontal passage 
as well as a lowering of the cloud deck. Up stream observations 
indicate that ceilings will drop into the MVFR range as the showers 
begin...and then lower into the IFR range several hours later...with 
IFR conditions to continue through the night. Model soundings 
indicate that LIFR is even possible towards the tail end of the taf 
cycle...but current upstream observations are not supporting that 
idea at this time. 




Cutter 


&& 


Eax watches/warnings/advisories... 
MO...none. 
Kansas...none. 


$$