527 
fxus63 ksgf 070647 
afdsgf 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO 
147 am CDT Tuesday Oct 7 2008 


Synopsis... 
a strong upper low was currently across southeast Nebraska with a 
trailing cold/cool (air mass) front across eastern Kansas. Radar 
trends Monday evening and early this morning have the bulk of the 
heaviest rainfall and convection across southern Arkansas. Earlier 
this evening...a band of heavy rainfall associated with one of the 
stronger complexes across eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas led to 
rainfall amounts of one half to locally one inch south and 
southwest of the Springfield area. As of 1 am...the bulk of the 
heaviest rainfall has shifted southeast of Springfield...and 
mainly affecting areas of West Plains...Alton and Eminence. Water 
vapor and RUC analysis still showing embedded short waves across 
Kansas and northern Oklahoma. 


Jlt 


&& 


Discussion... 
as the strongest moisture advection remains south of the 
region...have opted to decrease percentages to likely east of 
Springfield...to scattered west of Springfield. However...upper 
level dynamics associated with the upper low and weak isentropic 
lift and afternoon instability of the cold pool...will likely 
contribute to additional precipitation later today. Will likely 
hold off until dawn to adjust the main precipitation area this 
morning...with scattered activity this afternoon. 


Will keep isolated/scattered showers across the far eastern 
forecast area this evening as the main upper trough remains near 
the region. There should be a very sharp cut off later tonight 
with the cloud cover decreasing rapidly from west to east. Fog 
potential is likely Wednesday morning with clear skies/light winds 
and residual moisture near the surface. Dense fog advisory maybe 
considered for the next midnight shift. 


The extended outlook remains very active across The Rockies and 
northern plains. All models indicated that a very deep synoptic 
scale low and long wave trough developing across the western U.S. 
Latest GFS has the main core as far south as The Four Corners area 
of the southwestern U.S. This will led to a very warm pattern 
across the central U.S. With mainly dry conditions. Once this 
system begins to move eastward...a very active weather pattern 
will evolve across our region. 


Jlt 


&& 


Aviation... 


For the 06z tafs...expect ceilings to build down to at least MVFR 
levels by 12z...with Springfield likely seeing IFR for the first 
several hours after sunrise. Have timed precipitation based on radar and 
movement of the front...with the most likely time for rain at the 
airports also centered around the 10-15z time frame. 


Upslope flow behind the front could keep lower ceilings and 
visibilities over the Ozarks a little longer than the going 
forecast indicates. Also will have to monitor wind speeds late in 
the forecast as they may be a little on the light side. 


Terry 




&& 


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories... 
MO...none. 
Kansas...none. 
&& 


$$