003 
fxus63 ksgf 131136 
afdsgf 


Area forecast discussion...update aviation 
National Weather Service Springfield MO 
635 am CDT Monday Oct 13 2008 


Discussion... 


Main forecast highlights/challenges in this package continue to 
deal with timing of cold frontal passage and associated 
precipitation chances through the first part of the week. 


Currently...strong upper level low over the western u... 
split into two separate pieces of energy...with one piece pushing 
northeast into the Dakotas early this morning...and the other 
diving into the southwest U.S.. upper level ridge continues to 
have a strong hold across the eastern u... in mild 
conditions remaining across the Ozarks and southeast Kansas as the 
area remains under the influence of the ridge. 


The northern upper level piece of energy will continue to push to 
the northeast into the Great Lake region tonight. The cold front 
will slow drift east but will not be able to push into the area 
until the ridge flattens and the upper level trough over the 
southwest ejects towards the area late Tuesday into Wednesday. 
The majority of the precipitation with this system will be Post 
frontal...however pre-frontal showers and thunderstorms will be 
possible across the far western County Warning Area tonight and across the entire 
area on Tuesday...with the better chances occurring across the 
western and northern portions of the County Warning Area. Instability will be limited 
across the area ahead of the front...so severe weather is not 
expected despite decent wind shear over the region. The best 
chances for showers will occur on Wednesday as the upper level 
trough pushes through the area behind the front. The precipitation 
should push southeast out of the area by late Thursday. Rainfall 
amounts will generally average less than three quarters of an inch 
with the northwestern portions of the County Warning Area expected to see the 
highest amounts. 


Another upper level shortwave will dive south through the central 
U.S. Late this week bringing a reinforcing shot of cool air to the 
region. A dry airmass will be in place ahead of this shortwave which 
should limit precipitation. Upper level ridging then quickly builds 
across the region this weekend...returning pleasant weather to the 
area. 


Wise 


&& 


Aviation... 


For the 12z tafs...satellite trends showing some MVFR ceilings 
moving north across the Springfield Aerodrome...while Joplin remains 
in the clear for the most part. After 15z or so...we should see VFR 
conditions at both airfields. Chances for IFR increase after 
midnight tonight as a cold front begins to make its way into western 
Missouri. Latest guidance pointing towards IFR conditions...so went 
ahead and added into tafs after 06z. Later shifts will need to nail 
down timing issues. 


Claycomb 
&& 


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories... 
MO...none. 
Kansas...none. 
&& 


$$