836 
fxus63 keax 111059 
afdeax 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 
600 am CDT Sat Oct 11 2008 


..updated aviation... 


Discussion... 


/415 am CDT Sat Oct 11 2008/ 
main forecast challenges continue to be centered around west Continental U.S. 
Trough/low and timing it through the region. Models continue to 
disagree on timing. The preferred European model (ecmwf)/UKMET models are slower 
than the GFS/NAM...and the slower solution is often favored with low 
pressure systems evolving over the Great Basin region. As is typical 
with slower systems...will hold on to warmer temperatures a little 
longer...however maybe not quite as warm one would expect. Southwest 
flow aloft will bring middle-high level cloudiness associated with 
Hurricane Norbert...across most if not all of the region...and 
southeast component to the surface wind is also not warming. Have 
therefore not gone quite as warm as one might expect. 


Due to the slower timing...trimmed back probability of precipitation a little more for 
Sunday into Sunday night. Would not be surprised if later shifts 
trimmed back even more in that time frame. Held on to fairly high 
probability of precipitation Monday through Tuesday...as the slow moving front with energy 
riding northeast along the boundary moves east across the region. At 
this point did not change the ending time of precipitation much...leaving 
it Tuesday night into Wednesday...as once the system gets moving it 
should move through quickly. 


Nrr 


&& 


Aviation... 


VFR conditions expected through the taf period...with altocumulus castellanus deck and 
virga that has blossomed from central Kansas through eastern nebr remaining 
west of terminal corridor this morning...and only Pacific 
subtropical cirrus plume spilling into western Missouri later today. 
Boundary layer winds will diurnally mix and become occasionally 
gusty by late morning...only to decrease back in speed with sunset. 


21 


&& 


Eax watches/warnings/advisories... 
MO...none. 
Kansas...none. 


$$