514 
fxus61 kcar 211513 
afdcar 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Caribou ME 
1013 am EST Sat Nov 21 2009 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will build into the region this afternoon and crest 
over the area on Sunday and remain in control through Tuesday.&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
update: increased stratocu in southern Maine and decreased probability of precipitation. 
Also increased cloud cover tonight as stratocu appears to be holding 
on longer than previously thought. 


Main challenge will be clouds and temperatures. 


Model soundings and BUFKIT indicate stratocumulus clouds to hold on 
especially across the northern and western sections of the County Warning Area 
through this afternoon. The latest enhanced infrared satellite imagery showed 
these clouds extending all the way into the downeast areas. 
Decided to hang onto more clouds for the north and west into early 
afternoon. Cut back on the clouds across the downeast and coast 
west/downsloping taking hold. Precipitation chances will slip back to 20% this 
morning for the north and west. Thinking here is that shower 
activity will be non-existent after 11am. 


Winds will increase this morning as the direction turns more west-northwest. 
Momentum Transfer and low level cold air advection by late morning will allow for some 
gusts to hit 25-30 miles per hour mainly across the northern and western sections. 


Carwrf temperatures matching quite well this morning and followed 
suit into the afternoon which shows lower to middle 40s across the 
north and upper 40s to lower 50s downeast and the coast. High pressure 
ridging into the region tonight west/clearing skies. This will lead to 
cooler temperatures but still above normal. Gmos values looked 
good and aligned west/the daycrew assessment of middle/upper 20s north 
and west and upper 20s/lower 30s downeast to the coast. 
&& 


Short term /Sunday through Sunday night/... 
high pressure is expected to crest over the state early Sunday 
then move off to the east. Low pressure develops off the Middle 
Atlantic States during the day Monday then moves northward. Expect 
mostly dry conditions through most of this period with probability of precipitation 
increasing late Monday as low pressure approaches from the south. 
Will blend the NAM...GFS and sref for probability of precipitation. A blend of GFS and NAM 
used for sky and quantitative precipitation forecast. The gmos was used for wind...temperature and 
dew point. 
&& 


Long term /Monday through Friday/... 
expect precipitation to approach the region from the south Monday 
night into Tuesday so will gradually increase probability of precipitation from south to 
north. Weak low pressure develops along coast but primary low 
center will track to west of New England into southern Canada 
Wednesday. Upper low pressure trough is expected to remain to the 
west of the region through the end of the forecast period. Will 
initialize grids with gmos. Have made minor changes to sky and pop 
grids. Have also adjusted wind gust grids. 
&& 


Aviation /15z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
near term: MVFR across the north this morning will hang on through 
middle morning and then expect ceilings to rise to VFR. Bgr and bhb will 
see VFR through tonight. 


Short term: VFR conditions are expected Sunday and Monday. 
IFR/MVFR conditions are possible Tuesday and Wednesday. 
&& 


Marine... 
updated near term: extended the Small Craft Advisory out through 21z for hazardous 
seas. Winds are decreasing but seas remain in the Small Craft Advisory range 
and will take some time to decrease today. The intracoastal zone 
was pulled from the Small Craft Advisory as winds and seas will remain below 
criteria. Look for conditions to improve tonight as high pressure 
builds in from the west. 


Short term: 
for wind grids will use a blend of nam12 and gfs40 out to 00z 
Tuesday then will transition to the gmos winds. Have increased 
model blend wind speed in north to northeast flow Sunday. For 
waves will initialize grids with wna/4 and will make adjustments 
to better fit gmos winds. 
&& 


Car watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4 PM EST this 
afternoon for anz050-051. 


&& 


$$ 
Near term...Hewitt/mwalker 
short term...mignone 
long term...mignone 
aviation...Hewitt/mwalker 
marine...Hewitt/mwalker/mignone