051 
fxus64 kshv 211513 
afdshv 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la 
1015 am CDT Thursday Aug 21 2008 


Discussion... 


A upper level trough axis lingers generally north of the i30 
corridor in the wake of the upper low that has moved up into 
northern Missouri. Plenty of moisture still lingers across the 
area...so rain will remain in the forecast as weak upper level 
disturbances passing in the southwest to northeast flow combine with 
heating. Much of the organized rain coverage will be focused on 
northern la and southern Arkansas...however some widely scattered to 
scattered activity is not out of the question for northeast Texas. 
Maximum temperatures will be dependant on rain and cloud cover. Current 
activity on radar around Toledo Bend is moving at a decent pace...so 
flooding should not be a problem today. An update to the text 
package will be done for cosmetic reasons...otherwise forecast is on 
track. 


Eleven 


&& 


Aviation... 


Morning conditions predominant IFR ceilings/MVFR visible. 12z sounding 
traps moisture saturation below 850 mb...yet there is no inversion 
present. Conditions have slowly improved by 15z...but low MVFR ceilings 
at some sites. Cluster of +shra/thunderstorm not to affect any taf 
sites...should pass south of shv. Additional convection expected to 
develop this afternoon as convective available potential energy rise with temperatures soon heading into 
80s./Vii/ 


&& 


Previous point temps/pops... 
shv 88 71 91 72 92 / 50 20 30 20 40 
mlu 87 69 91 71 91 / 60 30 40 20 40 
deq 86 71 90 69 90 / 50 20 30 20 40 
txk 87 71 92 71 92 / 50 20 30 20 40 
eld 85 69 90 70 91 / 60 30 40 20 40 
tyr 89 73 92 72 92 / 30 20 30 20 40 
ggg 88 71 92 71 92 / 40 20 30 20 40 
lfk 89 72 91 72 92 / 50 20 40 20 40 


&& 


Shv watches/warnings/advisories... 
Arkansas...none. 
La...none. 
OK...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


11/07