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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service New Orleans la 
959 am CDT Monday Oct 13 2008 


Update... 
forecast package remains on track. The updated coastal waters forecast 
product has moved the startup time for the Small Craft Advisory 
in the Gulf coastal waters from 11 am CDT to the current time. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 327 am CDT Monday Oct 13 2008/ 


Short term... 
most forecast issues in the short term will hinge on easterly flow 
that is anticipated to stengthen as the East Coast high pressure 
area builds southward and tightens gradient into the Gulf of 
Mexico. This will make coastal exposed areas vulnerable to coastal 
flooding from abnormally high tides. See marine section below. 
Radar already indicating scattered coverage of maritime showers 
extending from the coastal marshes eastward into the Gulf well 
below Mississippi Sound. Isolated light marine layer showers also 
penetrating inland into east-central Mississippi. Based on this 
trend and apparent poor initialization of this regime in the 
models...will go higher than guidance for rain chances today...40 
percent near the Gulf and down-wind from marine influences...30 
percent elsewhere today...maintaining isolated shower coverage 
overnight. Temperatures will be affected by marine layer cloud 
cover but lower 80s seem attainable...which is near normal. Above 
normal morning temperatures will yield above normal mean 
temperatures for the next few days. 


Long term... 
easterly flow to persist at least until late Thursday or early 
Friday when models show frontal passage to bring offshore flow and 
subsequent lowering of tide levels for this weekend. Frontal 
passage will allow morning lows to fall to near normal levels with 
near normal middle-October temperature ranges anticipated from Friday 
through Sunday...along with dry conditions. 


Aviation.../12z tafs/ 
easterly flow will continue to bring moisture into the 
area...resulting in MVFR ceilings that are expected to affect all 
terminals through today. Cloud cover should help keep moderate or 
dense fog from occurring but some reduction in visibilities due to light 
fog will be possible at kmcb around sunrise. As daytime heating sets 
in...ceilings should lift and all terminals are expected to return to 
VFR conditions no later than 17z. East winds will increase for all 
sites today bringing sustained winds up to 13kts with gusts up to 
20kts. 17 


Marine... 
a westward moving inverted trough over the Gulf will cause pressures 
to lower somewhat over the northern and central Gulf. A strong surface 
high will continue to settle into the southeast Continental U.S. At the same time. The 
pressure gradient between these two features will tighten quite a 
bit causing winds to increase. The stronger winds will cause water 
to begin piling along the east facing shorelines of southeast la and a 
portion of coastal miss. Water is expected to inundated some 
secondary roadways and lowest lying areas near the coast. Major 
problems with tidal surge is not expected but these conditions are 
expected to cause inconveniences especially during times of high 
tide. 


East winds will increase toward 20 to 25 knots today and tonight. 
Persistent east winds through much of the week will maintain seas 
generally in the 5 to 7 feet range and tides of 2 to 3 feet above 
normal along east facing shores and within the tidal lakes and bays. 
Small advisories will begin today and run through at least Tuesday 
night and a coastal Flood Watch will be issued this morning for well 
above normal tide levels through Thursday. 17 


High tide times today and tuesday: 
Barataria Pass...Grand Isle 
today 10:22pm +1.4ft / Tuesday 10:37pm +1.6ft 


Rigolets...Lake Borgne 
today 11:53pm +1.1ft / early Wednesday morning 


Southwest Pass...Mississippi River 
today 9:00pm +1.5ft / Tuesday 9:11pm +1.7ft 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
mcb 80 67 82 65 / 30 10 20 10 
btr 83 68 83 67 / 30 10 20 10 
msy 82 73 82 72 / 40 20 30 20 
gpt 80 70 81 69 / 40 20 30 20 


&& 


Lix watches/warnings/advisories... 
la...coastal Flood Watch through Thursday evening for laz038-040-049- 
050-057-058-060>062-064-068>070. 


GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for gmz550-555-570- 
575. 


MS...coastal Flood Watch through Thursday evening for msz080. 


GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for gmz555-570-575. 


&& 


$$ 


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