804 
fxus63 klmk 111059 
afdlmk 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Louisville Kentucky 
645 am EDT Sat Oct 11 2008 


Updated for 12z taf discussion at bottom. 


Short term (today through sunday)... 


Highly amplified upper level pattern will dominate across the U.S. 
This weekend into early next week. Deep trough will reside over western 
U.S. With anomalously strong upper high/ridge centered over Ohio/Tennessee 
valleys...with a weaker upper low along the southeastern U.S. Coast. The 
ridge will ensure dry warm weather today and Sunday. Infrared satellite 
imagery suggests there will be scattered high level cirrus clouds this morning 
with model soundings/time height x-sections suggesting a few 
afternoon cumulus mainly over western parts of forecast area...otherwise sunny 
today and Sunday. 


Maximum temperatures this afternoon and Sunday afternoon will be in the lower 
and middle 80s...or 10 to 15 degrees above normal for October 11-12. 
Lows tonight will be in the 50s. Expect surface winds this afternoon to 
be easterly up to 10 miles per hour. However...with nearly dry adiabatic low 
level lapse rates and 20-25 knots winds above boundary layer...we could 
see some 10-20 knots gusts late morning and afternoon at times. Winds 
will subside this evening. 


Long term (sunday night through friday)... 


Early next week...deep western U.S. Upper low is prognosticated to lift northeastward 
across northern plains and upper Great Lakes. Greatest dynamics and 
highest low-level moisture content will remain to our north. 
However...this process will break down ridge over our area with 
modest height falls...allowing a weak surface front to approach our area 
late Tuesday/Wednesday. Front should have at least marginal moisture 
to work with so scattered showers still expected late Tuesday and 
Wednesday. 


Upper flow pattern becomes more zonal middle of next week. Frontal 
passage should end shower chance...although another shortwave in 
this flow could bring US another chance of showers late next week... 
supported best at this time by 00z European model (ecmwf). 


Maximum temperatures will be slightly cooler Monday and Tuesday with more 
clouds...but still upper 70s and lower 80s at most locations. Weak 
frontal passage should knock down maximum temperatures to lower to middle 70s by 
middle next week...or around normal for middle October. 


&& 


Aviation (12z tafs)... 


Other than scattered cirrus...skies are clear early this morning across forecast 
area. This will continue through forecast period...with only a few cumulus 
possible around bwg this afternoon. Vsybs at this time are p6sm at 
sdf and Lex and should remain so. Visibilities at bwg have slipped quickly 
with latest report of IFR in fog. Patchy fog will continue around 
bwg until an hour or so after sunrise...then visibilities will quickly 
improve to p6sm. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through forecast 
period as surface high pressure to our NE remains in control across the 
region. Surface winds will be easterly and could gust over 10 kts this 
afternoon. 


&& 


Lmk watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kentucky...none. 
In...none. 
&& 


$$ 
Weather.Gov/Louisville 


Short term...Funk 
long term....Funk 
aviation.....Funk