077 
fxus63 kpah 110816 
afdpah 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky 
316 am CDT Sat Oct 11 2008 


Discussion... 
main issues deal with the system next week. Plus temperatures and 
dew points. 


Large trough deepening over the western states this morning and in 
response ridge builds over our region. This should result in above 
normal temperatures through at least Tuesday. 


Models still having troubles with the system next week. GFS and 
European model (ecmwf) are in good agreement through 12z Monday...after that the 
GFS takes the main system bodily eastward while the European model (ecmwf) moves 
the main system quickly across southern Canada with a weaker upper 
low remaining over the southern rockies. This results in the GFS 
pushing the rain through by Wednesday while the European model (ecmwf) holds most 
of the precipitation off until the second system arrives about 
12-24 hours later. 


Slowed down the arrival a bit in the grids...but did not make 
major changes due to model disparity. Instability seems to be a 
bit limited so went with isolated thunderstorms. Adjusted the 
winds and temperatures as well. The European model (ecmwf) is trending warmer 
through most of next week compared to the last run. 


No matter which model one uses...the rain amounts will be rather 
light as the moisture is not impressive on model time height 
cross sections. 


&& 


Aviation... 
/from 06z tafs/ 
VFR conditions will prevail at kevv and kowb throughout the valid 
taf forecast period. Expect LIFR visibility at kcgi and perhaps MVFR 
visibility at kpah overnight. The fog will be most prevalent near 
rivers...lakes...and other low-lying moisture-bearing locations. 
Otherwise...scattered cumulus development is possible by Saturday 
afternoon as winds shift to the east/southeast. 
&& 


Pah watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kentucky...none. 
MO...none. 
Illinois...none. 
In...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...plus 
long term....ps 
aviation...Smith