789 
fxus63 kict 211752 cca 
afdict 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
1151 am CST Sat Nov 21 2009 


Aviation...18z tafs krsl/ksln/khut/kict/kcnu 


Stubborn low clouds and some patchy fog continues near kict/khut/ 
kcnu....with both krsl/ksln beginning to mix out as winds start to 
increase. NAM and GFS differ on how they want to handle the MVFR to 
near IFR cloud deck this afternoon. The NAM seems to be a little 
more optimistic in the low layer cloud deck clearing out at the 
afternoon progresses...so will go with this trend for the first 12 
hours as visible satellite shows cloud deck breaking up some. 


After 06z/sun...lack of mixing to the east of Interstate 135 could 
again lead to MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings redeveloping for the 
kict/khut/ksln taf sites overnight. Prefer this more pessimistic 
cloud trend but confidence is low...given poor model performance 
when it comes to this low level moisture. Things look to improve on 
sun....as a surface trough approaches from the west with surface 
winds expected to mix things out. 


Ketcham 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 1038 am CST Sat Nov 21 2009/ 


Update... 


Looking at current visibility and observations across the 
area...patchy fog...dense in some location...as well as drizzle has 
moved over the area. With the moist airmass and light 
winds...expect the drizzle and fog to slowly dissipate. Have 
increased the fog chances across south central and south East Kansas 
through the afternoon. Insert drizzle in the grids as the moist 
airmass seems to linger for awhile. Due to the drizzle and 
fog...have lowered maximum temperatures across the area. 


Dunten 


Previous discussion... /issued 543 am CST Sat Nov 21 2009/ 


Aviation...12z tafs krsl/ksln/khut/kict/kcnu 
main impacts: potential for IFR/MVFR conditions this morning and 
again Sunday morning. With boundary layer component now turning 
light southerly in response to Lee trough development...higher 
dewpoint air upstream in Oklahoma will advect northward into the area. 
Expecting some stratus build-down this am as a result with some IFR 
ceilings likely at the southern taf sites. Widespread dense fog looks 
less likely given widespread low cloud shield already in place. Low 
clouds should hang tough today beneath strong inversion from 
800-700 mb. The GFS and NAM-WRF both show boundary layer 
moistening again late tonight along/west of I-135 ahead of 
approaching surface trough axis. Another round of IFR/MVFR ceilings looks 
likely there toward the end of the valid period. 


Jmc 


Previous discussion... /issued 313 am CST Sat Nov 21 2009/ 


Discussion... 
the main forecast concern are the clouds today and the system 
early next week. 


Synopsis: 
low clouds have spread over much of the area this 
morning...visibilities have decreased some in southeast Kansas where 
there were breaks in the clouds and temperatures were allowed to 
radiate out. 


Today-sunday: 
fog could still be a problem this morning...unsure of how dense the 
fog will get with the low clouds present over the area. But feel 
that some locations could see low visibilities...especially where 
breaks in the clouds have allowed for temperatures to drop. Have 
left the dense fog advisory intact for now. 


Low clouds will likely stick around a little longer than earlier 
expected as boundary layer moisture is plentiful. The GFS seems to 
have a little better hold on the boundary layer moisture than the 
NAM...and the GFS keeps clouds around all day. Do feel that there 
could be some drizzle if the low clouds persist...but confidence is 
not high and have left it out of the forecast at this time. 


Low level clouds will stick around into Sunday...ahead of the next 
short wave. And Sunday morning could bring more fog and drizzle to 
central Kansas. 


Other than the clouds and possible drizzle...it will be a nice 
weekend with above normal temperatures. 


Monday-tuesday: 
this remains the most interesting portion of the forecast at this 
time. The next wave approaches from the west on Monday. Currently 
the European model (ecmwf) and GFS are at odds with this wave...with how far south to 
dig the trough and the timing. However...the European model (ecmwf) has been more 
consistent and the UK met and NAM and even some members of the GFS 
ensemble favor the more southern track like the European model (ecmwf) over the GFS 
more northerly track. With this...confidence is fairly high that 
the low will take a more southerly track and have gone with the 
slower solution. This will track the surface low along the 
Nebraska/Kansas border Monday night into Tuesday. The NAM/European model (ecmwf) have 
the front along Highway 81 by 00z Tuesday. This will bring the best 
chance for rain showers...and even a few snow showers over central 
Kansas overnight Monday into Tuesday morning as temperatures drop 
behind the cold front. The best chances for showers will remain 
north of the area...if this track holds. 


With the slower solution have warmed temperatures some on Monday 
ahead of the front...as southerly winds will allow for good mixing. 
Tuesday will be a cold day after the cold front moves 
through...highs in the low 40s in central Kansas would be possible 
and overnight lows will be in the upper 20s. 


Wednesday-friday: 
the Tuesday weather maker will exit the area as an upper level ridge 
builds in over the Central Plains. This will make for a nice 
Thanksgiving with near normal temperatures and no precipitation to mention. 
No changes were made to the extended portion of the forecast. 


Billings 


$$ 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 57 44 57 40 / 10 10 10 0 
Hutchinson 55 44 56 40 / 10 10 10 10 
Newton 56 44 55 39 / 10 10 10 10 
Eldorado 58 42 57 38 / 10 10 10 10 
Winfield-kwld 58 44 58 42 / 10 10 10 0 
Russell 57 38 55 33 / 10 10 10 10 
Great Bend 55 41 54 35 / 10 10 10 0 
Salina 56 41 57 39 / 10 10 10 10 
McPherson 55 44 57 40 / 10 10 10 10 
Coffeyville 59 45 63 45 / 10 10 10 10 
Chanute 59 45 63 44 / 10 10 10 10 
Iola 59 44 61 42 / 10 10 10 10 
Parsons-kppf 59 45 63 45 / 10 10 10 10 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 

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