785 
fxus63 kict 211143 
afdict 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
543 am CST Sat Nov 21 2009 


Aviation...12z tafs krsl/ksln/khut/kict/kcnu 
main impacts: potential for IFR/MVFR conditions this morning and 
again Sunday morning. With boundary layer component now turning 
light southerly in response to Lee trough development...higher 
dewpoint air upstream in Oklahoma will advect northward into the area. 
Expecting some stratus build-down this am as a result with some IFR 
ceilings likely at the southern taf sites. Widespread dense fog looks 
less likely given widespread low cloud shield already in place. Low 
clouds should hang tough today beneath strong inversion from 
800-700 mb. The GFS and NAM-WRF both show boundary layer 
moistening again late tonight along/west of I-135 ahead of 
approaching surface trough axis. Another round of IFR/MVFR ceilings looks 
likely there toward the end of the valid period. 


Jmc 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 313 am CST Sat Nov 21 2009/ 


Discussion... 
the main forecast concern are the clouds today and the system 
early next week. 


Synopsis: 
low clouds have spread over much of the area this 
morning...visibilities have decreased some in southeast Kansas where 
there were breaks in the clouds and temperatures were allowed to 
radiate out. 


Today-sunday: 
fog could still be a problem this morning...unsure of how dense the 
fog will get with the low clouds present over the area. But feel 
that some locations could see low visibilities...especially where 
breaks in the clouds have allowed for temperatures to drop. Have 
left the dense fog advisory intact for now. 


Low clouds will likely stick around a little longer than earlier 
expected as boundary layer moisture is plentiful. The GFS seems to 
have a little better hold on the boundary layer moisture than the 
NAM...and the GFS keeps clouds around all day. Do feel that there 
could be some drizzle if the low clouds persist...but confidence is 
not high and have left it out of the forecast at this time. 


Low level clouds will stick around into Sunday...ahead of the next 
short wave. And Sunday morning could bring more fog and drizzle to 
central Kansas. 


Other than the clouds and possible drizzle...it will be a nice 
weekend with above normal temperatures. 


Monday-tuesday: 
this remains the most interesting portion of the forecast at this 
time. The next wave approaches from the west on Monday. Currently 
the European model (ecmwf) and GFS are at odds with this wave...with how far south to 
dig the trough and the timing. However...the European model (ecmwf) has been more 
consistent and the UK met and NAM and even some members of the GFS 
ensemble favor the more southern track like the European model (ecmwf) over the GFS 
more northerly track. With this...confidence is fairly high that 
the low will take a more southerly track and have gone with the 
slower solution. This will track the surface low along the 
Nebraska/Kansas border Monday night into Tuesday. The NAM/European model (ecmwf) have 
the front along Highway 81 by 00z Tuesday. This will bring the best 
chance for rain showers...and even a few snow showers over central 
Kansas overnight Monday into Tuesday morning as temperatures drop 
behind the cold front. The best chances for showers will remain 
north of the area...if this track holds. 


With the slower solution have warmed temperatures some on Monday 
ahead of the front...as southerly winds will allow for good mixing. 
Tuesday will be a cold day after the cold front moves 
through...highs in the low 40s in central Kansas would be possible 
and overnight lows will be in the upper 20s. 


Wednesday-friday: 
the Tuesday weather maker will exit the area as an upper level ridge 
builds in over the Central Plains. This will make for a nice 
Thanksgiving with near normal temperatures and no precipitation to mention. 
No changes were made to the extended portion of the forecast. 


Billings 


$$ 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 60 44 57 40 / 10 10 10 0 
Hutchinson 58 44 56 40 / 10 10 10 10 
Newton 58 44 55 39 / 10 10 10 10 
Eldorado 61 42 57 38 / 10 10 10 10 
Winfield-kwld 61 44 58 42 / 10 10 10 0 
Russell 58 38 55 33 / 10 10 10 10 
Great Bend 56 41 54 35 / 10 10 10 0 
Salina 58 41 57 39 / 10 10 10 10 
McPherson 58 44 57 40 / 10 10 10 10 
Coffeyville 62 45 63 45 / 10 10 10 10 
Chanute 62 45 63 44 / 10 10 10 10 
Iola 62 44 61 42 / 10 10 10 10 
Parsons-kppf 63 45 63 45 / 10 10 10 10 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
dense fog advisory until noon CST today for ksz047>053-067>072- 
082-083-091>096-098>100. 


&& 


$$