332 
fxus62 kmlb 110852 
afdmlb 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida 
452 am EDT Sat Oct 11 2008 


Discussion... 


..threat for locally heavy rain near the coast today... 


Today...middle level low spinning off the Georgia coast and an inverted 
surface trough off the NE Florida coast will retrograde westward as deep 
layer high pressure builds down the eastern Seaboard. Local 
mesoscale model and the operational NAM-WRF are indicating 
potential for NE-SW convergent band(s) to develop and move in off 
the Atlantic...along some portions of the Volusia or Brevard coasts. 
Even the 00z GFS is hinting at some enhanced rainfall amounts in 
Brevard. Although we cannot pinpoint exact locations at this 
time...will draw a very low threat for flooding along the Volusia 
and Brevard coasts for the potential for locally heavy rain 
accumulating over one inch. Elsewhere...despite lots of dry air in 
the middle levels...moisture in the low levels will support 30-40% 
probability of precipitation for scattered showers and isolated storms. Steering flow has virtually 
collapsed which will support slow...erratic moving convection. 


Deeper onshore (easterly) flow will develop tonight as axis of 
trough crosses the area from east to west. Will keep a chance 
(30%) for showers overnight near the coast...lowering to 20% 
inland. 


Sun-Sun night...as upper low skirts westward across the southern 
Gulf Coast states deep layer high pressure will begin to strengthen 
over the eastern Continental U.S.. as this happens the western Continental U.S. Will 
experience deep troughing in response to the amplification of high 
pressure further east. Deep layer onshore flow will increase over 
the region and with the tightening gradient at the surface expect 
breezy conditions to develop along the East Coast. Scattered probability of precipitation 
and isolated storms will move east to west across the peninsula during 
the afternoon as the layered moisture remains fairly deep. Rough surf 
and an elevated risk of rip currents will be a threat at the beaches 
across ecfl. 


Mon-Tue...as the energy aloft moves from west to east across the 
northern Continental U.S. It will barrel into the ridging across the eastern 
Continental U.S.. by Tuesday the low to middle-level ridge axis will be situated from 
the northeast U.S. Through the Gulf Coast states. One more day on 
tap for scattered showers before drier air infiltrates the area 
overnight Monday into Tuesday. Rough surf and an elevated rip current risk 
will continue at area beaches. Gusty onshore flow with a continued 
tight pressure gradient will support breezy conditions areawide on 
Monday. 


Wed-Fri...the active pattern with mainly zonal flow over the 
northern Continental U.S. Will flatten deep layer ridging across the south 
through this period and drier conditions will continue from middle week 
into late week. Pop chances will remain 20% or less through this 
timeframe. Low-level flow to remain mainly east/northeast and expect 
a continuation of dangerous conditions (surf/rips) at the beaches. 


&& 


Aviation...concern for IFR ceilings across northern/interior sections 
through 13z. Have only indicated IFR ceilings at dab with marginal 
IFR ceilings down to mco. Mostly VFR conds expected after 14z with 
widely scattered thunderstorms and rain. There is potential for a narrow convergence band 
of heavy rain off the Atlantic to affect a portion of Volusia or 
Brevard counties this afternoon. 


&& 


Marine...today will be a transition day over the waters. Inverted 
trough of low pressure is amplifying off the Florida East Coast early 
this morning. But high pressure to the north will shunt this 
trough westward across North Florida tonight. North winds around 10 knots 
this morning across the north will veer to the NE this afternoon. Light 
and variable winds across the south will become east behind the 
sea breeze near the coast. There is a moderate (4 ft) swell 
component to the seas which will elevate rip current threat. 


Sun-Wed...an east/northeast component of low-level flow will dominate 
through this time with a developing tight pressure gradient. Marine 
conditions expected to deteriorate rapidly sun lasting into at least 
Tuesday with Small Craft Advisory conditions for both winds/seas developing. Conditions 
to be met first offshore sun spreading nearshore sun overnight into 
Monday. While winds may decrease by late in this period...seas will 
remain elevated...especially offshore into Wednesday. Expect winds to 
increase during this time to 20-25 kts with seas building 8-10 feet 
offshore. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
dab 84 72 84 74 / 30 30 40 30 
mco 88 71 86 73 / 30 30 40 10 
mlb 86 74 85 76 / 40 30 40 30 
vrb 87 74 85 79 / 40 30 40 40 


&& 


Mlb watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Am...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Short term...Kelly 
long term....sedlock