998 
fxus62 kjax 211423 
afdjax 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida 
923 am EST Sat Nov 21 2009 


..increasing rain chances tonight... 


Update...patchy dense morning fog is slowly lifting and low stratus 
will gradually erode through the morning. Mostly cloudy skies are 
expected today as middle and high clouds stream over the area in 
advance of Gulf of Mexico storm system. A persistent high pressure 
wedge continues down the southeast region from a high center over the 
mid-Atlantic. This is bringing cool and stable conditions to the 
local County Warning Area. Giving amount of high clouds and cool north-northeast low level 
flow...lowered maximum temperatures slightly with highs only reaching the 
middle/upper 60s across our Georgia zones to middle/upper 70s Florida zones. Lowered 
probability of precipitation for a silent 10% across our Suwannee Valley zones this afternoon. 


Tonight...00z/06z models diverge with the placement of warm front 
across our County Warning Area tonight into early sun which impacts how much low 
level destabilization will occur in advance of the approaching surface 
low. Despite frontal placement discrepancies...best phasing of 
moisture and dynamics appear to be across our western zones early 
Sunday morning...with energy lifting north-northeast across our Georgia zones during 
the day sun as drier air begins to filter in from the west across 
our Florida zones Sun afternoon. Not a big rain event...main concern will be 
isolated rotating storms Sunday morning. 


&& 


Aviation...conditions have improved to VFR at all terminals except 
crg where LIFR ceilings continue. Conditions will improve over the next 
hour or two at crg...with middle and high clouds and VFR prevailing 
through today. Ceilings lower tonight as Gulf of Mexico storm system 
approaches with visibility and ceiling restrictions likely after 
midnight due to vcsh. 


&& 


Marine...will continue with scec for offshore legs. Combined seas 
are primarily 3-5 feet with the highest heights likely across our Florida 
leg south of St Augustine...but an isolated 6 feet sea is possible well 
offshore especially as north-northeast winds increase this afternoon. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
amg 66 53 65 50 / 10 60 80 40 
ssi 67 59 70 57 / 10 50 70 50 
jax 71 58 74 57 / 10 40 70 50 
sgj 71 62 76 61 / 10 40 60 40 
gnv 74 59 77 59 / 10 50 60 40 
ocf 77 62 79 61 / 10 40 50 30 


&& 


Jax watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Georgia...none. 
Am...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Enyedi/zappe/Walker