244 
fxus62 kjax 211827 
afdjax 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida 
227 PM EDT Thursday Aug 21 2008 


..tropical storm warnings remain in effect for the coast... 
..Wind and lake wind advisories in effect for inland zones... 
..Flood Watch in effect for all areas... 


Short term...all concerns continued to be centered on Tropical 
Storm Fay which finally has shown signs of movement over the past 
3 to 5 hours with at first a northward motion and now perhaps a 
west of north motion. The latest public advisory from the National 
Hurricane Center has the center of the storm very near Flagler 
Beach with a continued slow movement to the west-northwest at 2 
miles per hour. Center of circulation has certainly broadened considerably 
over the last 24 hours and with the shift northward...we are 
actually seeing a bit of drying over Flagler and St Johns 
counties. 


Residents and media are reminded that this is only phase 
one of this storm for these areas and substantial very heavy 
rainfall is expected to return to the area later tonight. 
Satellite imagery has really made a transformation today with the 
much colder cloud tops finally rotating around the northern 
periphery of the system and advecting inland. Have thus seen a 
corresponding increase in moderate shower activity over the coastal 
sections of southeast Georgia and into inland northeast Florida. 


So the big question becomes what happens once the system moves 
across northern Florida through this evening. Given the wide 
expanse of cold cloud tops and associated thunderstorm activity on 
the eastern semi-Circle expect the majority of rainfall concerns 
could actually occur on the backside of the system tonight and into 
Friday. As system moves west...will also see an increase in shear 
as the right front quadrant sets up over most of the area with 
isolated tornadoes possible into the overnight hours. 


As far as the warning and advisory conditions are 
concerned...currently have tropical storm wind warnings through 
Friday afternoon and have likewise extended wind and lake wind 
advisories to match up for the inland sections. 


Looking at the official NHC track and model consensus...concern is 
increasing that a band of enhanced moisture and associated shower 
activity will hang back over the forecast area well into the 
weekend. Depending on where this band sets up...we could be 
looking at additional heavy rainfall over areas already saturated 
from the direct effects of Fay. 


Long term...looking further down the Road which is difficult 
given the history of this storm...should see some shortwave energy 
diving into the area by early next week which could bring the 
moisture remnants of Fay back over the area with enhanced rain 
chances once again. 


&& 


Aviation...rain bands will produce widespread IFR visibilities/ceilings 
through tonight with wind gusts up to around 40 knots. Have 
continued with low level wind shear in tafs due to NE winds near 50 knots right 
above surface. 


&& 


Marine...Tropical Storm Fay along the coast at Flagler Beach moving 
slowly west-northwest. Heavy rain bands continue to spiral around the broad 
center and move ashore the coast. Will continue to have tropical 
storm conditions through tonight. Winds/seas begin to decrease 
Friday as Fay moves inland and weakens. Will however continue to 
have Small Craft Advisory conditions offshore Saturday as seas continue to gradually 
subside. No headlines expected Sunday. 


&& 


Hydrology...please see the Jacksonville webpage at 
weather.Gov/jax for the latest river flood warnings. 
Otherwise...HPC projections of 5 to 10 inches with locally higher 
amounts look on track and will generally handle with areal flood 
warnings. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
amg 73 83 73 87 / 100 100 80 60 
ssi 78 82 78 83 / 100 100 80 60 
jax 76 82 76 85 / 100 100 80 60 
sgj 77 83 78 85 / 100 100 80 60 
gnv 75 83 74 87 / 100 100 80 70 
ocf 75 84 75 88 / 100 100 70 70 


&& 


Jax watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...Flood Watch through late Friday night for Alachua-Baker-Bradford- 
Clay-Columbia-Duval-Flagler-Gilchrist-Hamilton-Marion- 
Nassau-Putnam-St Johns-Suwannee-Union. 


Lake Wind Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for Columbia-Gilchrist- 
Hamilton-Suwannee. 


Tropical Storm Wind Warning until 4 PM EDT Friday for Clay-Duval- 
Flagler-Nassau-Putnam-St Johns. 


Tropical Storm Warning for Duval-Flagler-Nassau-St Johns. 


Wind Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for Alachua-Baker-Bradford- 
Marion-Union. 


Georgia...Flood Watch through late Friday night for Appling-Atkinson-Bacon- 
Brantley-Charlton-Clinch-coastal Camden-coastal Glynn- 
Coffee-Echols-inland Camden-inland Glynn-Jeff Davis-Pierce- 
Ware-Wayne. 


Lake Wind Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for Appling-Atkinson- 
Bacon-Brantley-Charlton-Clinch-Coffee-Echols-Jeff Davis- 
Pierce-Ware-Wayne. 


Tropical Storm Wind Warning until 4 PM EDT Friday for coastal 
Camden-coastal Glynn-inland Camden-inland Glynn. 


Tropical Storm Warning for coastal Camden-coastal Glynn. 


Am...Tropical Storm Warning for Altamaha Sound Georgia to Fernandina Beach 
Florida 20 nm to 60 nm offshore-Altamaha Sound Georgia to Fernandina 
Beach Florida out 20 nm-Fernandina Beach to St Augustine Florida 20 
nm to 60 nm offshore-Fernandina Beach to St Augustine Florida 
out 20 nm-St Augustine to Flagler Beach Florida 20 nm to 60 nm 
offshore-St Augustine to Flagler Beach Florida out 20 nm. 


&& 


$$ 


Public...jd 
marine/aviation/fire weather...pp 
tropical...sl/pw 
radar...jh 
Hydro...jh/bk 
short term/upper air...bk