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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida 
203 am EST Wednesday Dec 3 2008 


Short term (today - friday)...cold start this morning with early 
morning readings already below freezing in many locations north of 
Tampa Bay. Freeze warning remain in effect this morning through 8 
am for Hernando...Sumter...Citrus..and Levy counties. 


High pressure and dry airmass will remain over the region through 
Thursday...then temperatures and dewpoints will gradually moderate Friday as 
next front approaches. 


For today...mostly sunny skies and still on the cool side with highs 
from the middle 60s north to low 70s south. Chilly...but not quite as 
cold tonight...lows from the upper 30s north to middle 40s interior 
central and south. Low 50s along the coast. A little warmer on 
Thursday with highs in the middle-upper 70s. 


On Friday...the next front will approach late in the day. But very 
little moisture with it...so for now will limit probability of precipitation to 10 percent. 
Highs again in the middle-upper 70s. 


&& 


Long term (friday night - tuesday)...a weakening cold front will be 
running out of steam over North Florida Friday night...then high 
pressure builds in from the Gulf during Saturday. Models continue 
dry with this front...so just expecting a band of clouds with 
perhaps a few sprinkles on Saturday. 


With such a deep eastern U.S. Trough in place Saturday night... 
expect surface ridge to remain south of the region with moderate 
northwesterly flow over the region. We will see cold air advection 
during this time...but the westerly component of the winds will help 
to keep temperatures up as the airmass moves in off the Gulf of 
Mexico. Still...temperatures will likely fall into the lower or 
middle 40s away from the coast north of Tampa Bay by Sunday morning. 


A large area of high pressure will set up over the entire eastern 
half of the nation for the beginning of next week...keeping the cool 
dry airmass locked in place. Models diverge somewhat on Tuesday... 
with the GFS moving the high center more rapidly into the Atlantic 
while the European model (ecmwf) holds it near the coast a bit longer. Either 
way...we should get by the extended period with no real threat of 
rain...but if the GFS verifies...showers could be approaching our 
northern zones by Tuesday evening. 


Temperatures will continue to run a few degrees below average...but 
no record breaking cold outbreaks expected at this time. 


&& 


Aviation...no aviation concerns. 


&& 


Marine...high pressure will provide fair boating conditions next few 
days with winds at or below 15 kts through the end of the week. Winds will 
becoming northwest and increase again behind the next front late 
Saturday...with scec or Small Craft Advisory headlines possible for the latter half 
of the weekend. 


&& 


Fire weather...dry airmass will result in low relative humidity values this 
afternoon. Relative humidity should drop to or just below 35 percent...but right 
now looks like durations will fall just short of 4 hours needed for 
rfw. Will closely monitor. Dewpoints slowly moderate Thursday and Friday 
as low level flow becomes more easterly. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
tpa 67 49 75 55 / 0 0 0 5 
fmy 72 50 79 58 / 0 0 0 5 
gif 68 48 76 56 / 0 0 0 5 
srq 68 49 76 54 / 0 0 0 5 
bkv 66 39 75 45 / 0 0 0 5 
spg 66 53 75 58 / 0 0 0 5 


&& 


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...freeze warning until 8 am EST this morning for Citrus-Hernando- 
Levy-Sumter. 


Gulf waters...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term/marine....17/Petro 
long term/aviation...63/jillson