790 
fxus62 ktae 131325 
afdtae 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida 
925 am EDT Monday Oct 13 2008 


Update...the morning water vapor/500 mb composite imagery depicts 
a highly amplified pattern for middle-October, with a deep trough axis 
stretching from the northern plains to The Four Corners, and a sharp axis 
from Hudson Bay Canada to the southeastern states. Similar to past 
soundings, ample moisture is confined to the low levels of the 
atmosphere (surface to 700 mb), with Ely flow through the entire 
column. Precipitation water remained unchanged (1.5") and instability was 
weak. Surface features include a coastal trough off the southeast coast and 
a strong ridge centered along the WV/Virginia border. The tight pressure 
gradient between these systems is maintaining a moderate Ely flow. 
Winds over the interior thus far have been averaging around 10 kts. 
A regional radar view shows some coastal showers moving inland into 
southeastern Georgia. 


For the morning update, have lowered probability of precipitation for Alabama and Florida zones to 20 
percent. Also, with insolation and model soundings depicting 
marginal instability this afternoon, added isolated thunder to the 
weather grids. Expect winds to increase to 10 to 15 kts with higher gusts 
today. Made a few tweaks to the temperatures and sky grids, but will have 
no impact to the zones. 


&& 


Marine...Ely winds were sustained around 20 kts with gusts to 25 
kts. Seas ranged from 2-feet feet near shore to 5-7 feet well offshore. 
Current Small Craft Advisory headlines will continue as the tight 
pressure gradient supports these conditions today. No changes to the 
morning forecast. Panhandle beach cams show increasing wind wave action, 
with 1-2 breakers. These conditions will deteriorate, with a high 
risk for rip currents as the day wears on. 


&& 


Aviation...easterly flow continues this morning with another round 
of low clouds. Remnants of the upper low have moved west of the 
area, so the forcing for the low clouds should be on the decline. 
Expect to see current MVFR conditions improve to VFR by afternoon 
for most terminals. Thereafter, VFR conditions will prevail as high 
pressure builds in aloft over the area. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Tallahassee 84 64 87 60 89/ 30 10 0 0 0 
Panama City 85 68 87 64 89/ 30 10 0 0 0 
Dothan 83 62 87 57 88/ 30 10 0 0 0 
Albany 82 62 87 56 88/ 30 10 0 0 0 
Valdosta 82 64 86 58 89/ 30 10 0 0 0 
Cross City 86 63 88 59 88/ 30 10 0 0 0 


&& 


Tae watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...none. 
Georgia...none. 
Florida...none. 
GM...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 8 PM EDT Tuesday all 
marine zones. 


&& 


$$ 


Jamski/Camp