449 
fxus62 kmlb 131515 
afdmlb 


Area forecast discussion...update 
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida 
1115 am EDT Monday Oct 13 2008 


Discussion... 
..high risk of rip currents at area beaches today... 


..Rough surf and minor beach erosion likely today through Tuesday... 


..breezy/windy conditions today across all of east central Florida... 


Latest round of surface observations were indicating easterly winds 
15 to 20 miles per hour with gusts to 25 miles per hour along the coast. Winds have yet to 
penetrate inland very far inland but will do so within the next hour 
or two as the atmosphere mixes out some more. Infrared satellite 
loop depicting low clouds over the Atlantic moving quickly east to 
west. Expect intervals of mostly cloudy skies all day as marine 
stratocu continues to come ashore and move well inland. Current rain 
chances ranging from 30 north to 50 south where the deeper moisture 
is located looks good. 


***Update***...very rough seas at buoy009 as waves continue to flirt 
with the 10ft level...average and dominant periods running 5-6sec and 
8-9sec respectively. Add to the mix the approaching astronomical 
high tide and reports of several rip current rescues from area beach 
patrols yesterday...and conditions are sufficient for a high surf 
advisory. Will keep the advisory in effect through the next two 
high tide cycles...which should cover the period of strongest 
winds/highest seas. 


&& 


Aviation...intervals of MVFR conditions associated with areas of 
marine stratocu and scattered showers penetrating well inland. An 
isolated lightning strike will be possible this afternoon across the 
interior in heavier rain showers activity. Increasing tight pressure 
gradient will allow east/northeast winds to become sustained 15-20 
kts with occasional gusts to 25 kts during the day. Tonight expect 
winds to subside a bit inland and remain around 15 kts along the 
coast. 




&& 


Marine...weather buoys recording easterly winds 20 to 25 knots with 
gusts to 30 knots and seas ranging from 6 feet at the scripps buoy 4 
miles east of Port Canaveral to 10 feet at buoy 009/20 miles east of 
the cape and 12 feet at buoy 010/120 miles offshore. Enough said. 
Small craft conditions continue. Expecting rough surf...strong rips 
and possibility of minor beach erosion around high tides which will 
be between 7pm and 8pm tonight and again around 8 am Tuesday morning. 


&& 


Fire weather...although no relative humidity problems are anticipated...brisk surface 
and transport winds will result in high dispersion values the next 
few days. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
dab 85 73 85 69 / 30 10 0 0 
mco 87 70 86 69 / 30 10 0 0 
mlb 85 75 86 72 / 30 20 0 0 
vrb 85 76 86 73 / 40 20 0 0 


&& 


Mlb watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for coastal 
Volusia-Indian River-inland Volusia-Martin-northern Brevard- 
Northern Lake-Okeechobee-Orange-Osceola-Seminole-southern 
Brevard-Southern Lake-St. Lucie. 


High surf advisory until 10 am EDT Tuesday for coastal Volusia- 
Indian River-Martin-northern Brevard-southern Brevard-St. 
Lucie. 


Am...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Tuesday for coastal waters 
from Flagler Beach to Volusia Brevard County line out 20 nm- 
coastal waters from Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet out 20 
nm-coastal waters from Volusia Brevard County line to 
Sebastian Inlet out 20 nm-waters from Flagler Beach to 
Volusia Brevard County line 20 to 60 nm offshore-waters 
from Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20 to 60 nm offshore- 
waters from Volusia Brevard County line to Sebastian Inlet 
20 to 60 nm offshore. 


&& 


$$ 


Short term/aviation...Wimmer 
long term....bragaw