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fxus62 kmfl 240208 
afdmfl 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Miami Florida 
1008 PM EDT Wednesday Jul 23 2008 


Update...more showers have been developing across the area over 
the past hour...and still a few storms around as well. Based on 
current trends...increased probability of precipitation accordingly with a downward trend 
throughout the night. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 742 PM EDT Wednesday Jul 23 2008/ 


Aviation...rain showers and thunderstorms and rain continue to dwindle this evening, and 
left in vcsh in all tafs for the next few hours. Later in the 
evening as daytime heating is lost the remainder of the activity 
is expected to dissipate... however scattered to num thunderstorms and rain are expected 
to develop again during the late morning to middle day hours... thunderstorms in the vicinity 
added once again. 


Winds are expected to be most easterly through the night and 
Thursday, however a sea breeze will develop again at apf and turn 
the winds to an onshore direction. /Tingler 


Previous discussion... /issued 221 PM EDT Wednesday Jul 23 2008/ 


Discussion...convection currently developing along east CST sea 
breeze which has pushed well inland across Miami-Dade while still 
hugging the CST in Palm Beach County. This trend will continue 
into early afternoon before pattern shifts west into the interior 
zones. So will likely lower probability of precipitation for the coastal zones of at least 
Miami-Dade and Broward counties for the afternoon package. Looking 
into the next couple of days, the GFS and NAM have totally 
opposite ideas as to what will happen but plan to lean more 
towards the GFS as it seemed to initialize the best. Both the GFS 
and NAM initialize eastern U.S. Middle level trough but while the NAM 
continues to dig this trough southward through Thursday, the GFS 
lifts it out to the NE as Atlantic ridge builds in across S fla. 
Since this is getting into the last week of July, have a hard time 
believing the NAM with such a vigorous trough (although one could 
only hope) and plan to go with mav pop pattern depicting highest 
probability of precipitation along the west CST due to the easterly steering flow developing. 
Of course, the GFS does not show strong ridging so the steering 
flow is not terribly strong either and if the trough just digs a 
little more than the GFS indicates, it could change things 
significantly. As the ridge continues to build, drier air aloft 
moves in with the GFS forecast sounding indicating precipitable water down to less 
than 1.75 inches by Friday and back to scattered probability of precipitation. 


In the extended, a second shortwave moves into the New England 
region, and as a result the middle/upper level ridge moves to the S and 
the GFS is hinting that S fla could get back into southwesterly 
flow. This of course would shift the highest probability of precipitation to the east CST but 
do not plan to change the extended for now as any subtle change in 
the pattern would alternate the flow. 


Marine...wind of less than 15 knots through the period will result 
in seas at less than 4 feet. 


Fire weather...no problems or concerns are expected. 


&& 


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Am...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$