208 
fxus62 kmlb 211908 
afdmlb 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida 
308 PM EDT Thursday Aug 21 2008 


Discussion... 


..Tropical Storm Fay made landfall vicinity Flagler and Ormond beaches... 
..Heavy rainfall and a continued flood threat mainly over northern 
areas as rain bands wrap around the circulation center... 


Tonight/tomorrow...latest Doppler radar images indicating Tropical 
Storm Fay is beginning to have a slightly faster movement towards 
the west to northwest and looks to have made landfall between 
Ormand by the sea and Flagler Beach which follows the latest NHC 
forecast track. NHC track then takes Fay towards the west across 
the northern Florida Peninsula and briefly drags it through the 
Gulf of Mexico late Friday afternoon. Continuing tropical storm 
force winds and areal flooding due to persistent heavy rain bands 
around Fay will continue to be a threat tonight into tomorrow. 
However winds do look to begin to decline this evening as Fay 
weakens over land. Will have to re-evaluate current tropical 
storm wind/tropical storm wind warnings with next TPC/NHC 
advisory but as for now they remain in place. 


Flooding will continue to be of concern through tonight into 
tomorrow...especially over the north where a persistent rain band 
continues to rotate over the center of Fay. Flooding has been 
reported on several roads in Seminole County with heavy rain 
continuing over the area at this time. A Flood Watch remains in 
place across the entire County Warning Area through Friday afternoon. 




Friday night-sun...high pressure building down the eastern Seaboard 
and adjacent Atlantic waters interacting with ts Fay tracking 
across northern Florida and the Panhandle will result in an 
onshore flow through Sunday. Deep southerly flow on the backside 
of ts Fay will draw deep moisture up the peninsula and when combined 
with vorticity maximas rotating south to north areas of rain and 
isolated thunderstorms will continue through the weekend. Chances 
of rain and storms decrease to scattered areawide Sunday as Fay 
will have tracked far enough to the west to lose much of its 
influence on east central Florida/S weather. 


Previous extended... 
ridge axis over the eastern U.S. Will push off the eastern Seaboard sun and 
merge with the Bermuda ridge over the Atlantic as the T.S. Fay (or her 
remnants) moves into the lower MS valley. Deep east/southeast flow will prevail 
over the Florida Peninsula into early next week...tapping high moisture 
and pushing it across the County Warning Area. Deep east/southeast flow in a high moisture 
environment typically results in decent precipitation coverage for east Florida. 
Furthermore...with uncertainty with respect to the future track of the remnants 
of Fay after Monday...precipitation chances will remain at 50% through the period with 
temperatures near climatology. 
&& 


Aviation...widespread IFR/MVFR conditions will continue over 
northern taf sites closer to the center of Fay and where heavy 
rain bands are expected to continue. Further south VFR conditions 
possible with degrading conditions with scattered convection in 
redeveloping bands around Fay. 




&& 


Marine... 
tropical storm warnings remain in place over the coastal waters at 
this time. Winds should begin to weaken as Fay also weakens over 
land tonight into tomorrow. Tropical storm warnings may be replaced 
later tonight over the coastal waters with small craft advisories. 


Friday night-Tue...remnants of ts Fay forecast to track west to 
the Panhandle and lose most of its influence on east central 
Florida by Saturday while high pressure building across the waters 
results in an onshore wind through Monday. Winds shift to the 
southeast Monday as the surface ridge axis starts to slide across 
southern Florida. 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
dab 77 86 76 85 / 80 70 60 60 
mco 75 88 75 88 / 80 70 60 60 
mlb 77 87 76 86 / 70 70 50 50 
vrb 76 86 73 86 / 60 70 50 50 


&& 


Mlb watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for coastal Volusia-Indian 
River-inland Volusia-Martin-northern Brevard-Northern Lake- 
Okeechobee-Orange-Osceola-Seminole-southern Brevard- 
Southern Lake-St. Lucie. 


Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this afternoon for Martin- 
Okeechobee. 


Tropical Storm Warning for coastal Volusia-Indian River-northern 
Brevard-southern Brevard-St. Lucie. 


Tropical Storm Wind Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for inland 
Volusia-Northern Lake-Orange-Osceola-Seminole-Southern Lake. 


Am...Tropical Storm Warning for coastal waters from Flagler Beach to 
Volusia Brevard County line out 20 nm-coastal waters from 
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet out 20 nm-coastal waters 
from Volusia Brevard County line to Sebastian Inlet out 20 
nm-waters from Flagler Beach to Volusia Brevard County line 
20 to 60 nm offshore-waters from Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter 
Inlet 20 to 60 nm offshore-waters from Volusia Brevard 
County line to Sebastian Inlet 20 to 60 nm offshore. 


&& 


$$ 


Weitlich/Wimmer/lascody/Turner/sharp