520 
fxus62 kmlb 240156 
afdmlb 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida 
955 PM EDT Wednesday Jul 23 2008 


Discussion... 
another day with frequent cloud-to-ground lightning...strong surface wind gusts...and very 
heavy rain as diurnal convection developed early this afternoon and pushed 
steadily down the peninsula through late evening. Measured rainfall 
amounts include 2.74" at ksfb...1.79" at kdab...and 1.22" at kmco. 
Radar EST precipitation included 3.0"-4.0" between Lady Lake and Leesburg... 
3.0"-4.0" along sunrise-44 between Paisley and Forest Hills... 2.0"-3.0" 
over Altamonte Springs...and 2.0"-3.0" between Titusville and ksc. 
Numerous reports of 30-40mph surface wind gusts and isolated small hail...but no 
severe weather reports this evening. 


Last vestiges of the convection were pushing across Lake Okeechobee 
and western Martin County by late evening...with lingering stratiform rain 
over Okeechobee...S Osceola...and west Indian River/St. Lucie 
counties. Precipitation should end areawide by midnight. Not anticipating 
redevelopment like last night as an 850 mb-h50 trough has pushed off the 
Atlantic coast...placing the the Central Peninsula on its descending 
backside. Furthermore...and h50 vorticity maximum S of the I-4 corridor is 
embedded within light but steady nearly flow...resulting in middle level 
negative vorticity advection over most of the Central Peninsula. 


Will update forecast to remove probability of precipitation from the northern and central County Warning Area...southern 
counties will keep rainfall through midnight. Also will increase 
clouds areawide as extensive middle/upper level decks across the deep S 
will push into the Florida Peninsula under the aforementioned nearly flow. 


&& 


Aviation... 
VFR all sites through 08z...local MVFR visibilities possible due to br between 
08z-12z. VFR all sites between 12z-18z. Scattered/numerous rain showers/thunderstorms developing 
after 18z. 


&& 


Marine... 
no highlights. Seas at or below 2ft...sfc/bndry layer winds at or below 12kts. 


***Note to mariners...buoy 41009 communication issues are being 
investigated by the National data buoy center.*** 


&& 


Mlb watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Am...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Bragaw/Kelly