760 
fxus64 kmob 210930 
afdmob 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama 
431 am CDT Thursday Aug 21 2008 


Short term...(today and tonight)...forecast area remains in between 
weather systems with upper low lifting to the northeast across 
Missouri. Meanwhile...Tropical Storm Fay continues to remain almost 
stationary across Daytona Beach. This will lead to only isolated to 
low end scattered coverages of showers and thunderstorms for today. 
The bulk of the rainfall will remain to the west and east of our 
area through tonight. Highs for today will be very close to those 
seen yesterday under partly cloudy skies. Lows tonight again fall 
into the low to middle 70s. /13 


Today's wet microburst potential is low. 




Friday through Sunday...Friday will be when the remains of Fay... 
likely still a weak tropical depression will begin to make an impact 
on the forecast area. Friday looks to be a transition day with rain 
chances increases by evening as T.D. Fay approaches. If Fay behaves 
and remains over land as the latest official track calls for we 
should not have any significant wind problems but will be breezy. 
Biggest concern will be rainfall amounts and potential for flooding. 
Heavier rain should begin Saturday over the eastern zones and spread 
slowly west...reaching southwest Alabama Saturday night and 
continuing into the first of the week. Fay is expected to slow down 
as it crosses across the forecast area...enhancing the heavy rain 
potential. Will likely be a flash flood or Flood Watch issued before 
the weekend. Still a slight possibility that Fay could move south of 
the forecast track and spend some time over the coastal waters and 
the forecast would need to be adjusted for stronger winds. /11 




Long term...(sunday through wednesday)will still be dealing with 
the remains of Fay into Tuesday if not Wednesday. Due to the 
forecast slow west northwest movement of Fay after it near Mobile 
the forecast area should remain in a moist southerly flow into middle 
week. River flooding will likely be ongoing by the first of the week 
as showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue into middle week. 
Mavmos numbers actually seem a bit low given that the GFS has the 
center of circulation just southwest of the forecast area and moves 
it back to the north. /11 


&& 


Marine...Tropical Storm Fay is currently located on the East Coast 
of Florida near Daytona Beach. Fay is forecasted to move slowly to 
the west northwest through late in the weekend into early next week. 
Fay is forecast to weaken as it moves across northern Florida today 
and tonight and is expected to move across the Florida Panhandle and 
southern Alabama as a tropical depression Saturday and Sunday. This 
will bring increasing northwesterly winds to the marine area Friday 
and Saturday. Winds will become southwesterly as Tropical Depression 
Fay moves across southern Alabama on Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory 
will likely be required over the weekend. All mariners and coastal 
interests should continue to monitor the forecast track from the 
National Hurricane Center for future track updates. /13 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Mobile 91 72 89 71 / 30 20 20 40 
Pensacola 93 75 92 73 / 30 20 30 50 
Destin 90 76 86 74 / 30 20 40 60 
Evergreen 89 72 85 72 / 30 20 40 50 
Waynesboro 90 71 90 72 / 30 20 30 40 
Camden 91 72 87 71 / 30 20 40 50 


&& 


Mob watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...none. 
Florida...none. 
MS...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$