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fxus62 ktbw 131254 
afdtbw 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida 
900 am EDT Monday Oct 13 2008 


Discussion...rain activity this morning have been very sparse with 
radar showing several showers over the Florida East Coast. Expect 
some cells to gradually develop inland and then slowly migrate 
westward. Chance of showers this afternoon is low end scattered 30 
percent with sightly higher chances over Charlotte and Lee 
counties. Dry air advection from the north is on its way which will 
bring a further reduction in probability of precipitation starting later tonight. 


Winds increase some today getting close to lake Wind Advisory 
levels...but will carry caution headline in the zone forecasts for 
now and closely monitor the situation. 


Previous discussion... 


Short term (today - wednesday)...upper-level low nearing the Bay of 
Campeche will continue to move southwestward away from the region 
today. Strong and large deep layered ridge centered over the eastern 
half of the nation is forecast to move slowly southwest as 
well...reaching the southeastern states Tuesday night and North 
Florida by Wednesday. This deep layered ridge of high pressure will 
bring very warm but dry conditions for most of our area Tuesday and 
Wednesday. Until then...we have to deal with one more day of 
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms...but most should be the 
typical garden variety with no severe storms expected. After some 
lingering showers mainly off the coast and over southwest Florida 
tonight...expect mostly rain-free conditions Tuesday and Wednesday 
with plenty of sunshine each day. 


Daytime high temperatures will continue above average with most 
places reaching the upper 80s to near 90. Overnight lows will 
start out in the middle 60s north to lower 70s coastal central and 
southwest...but drier air moving in will allow temperatures to 
fall a bit more Tuesday night with lows ranging from near 60 far 
north to the middle 60s interior central and southwest. It will still 
remain near 70 degrees along the coast from the Tampa Bay area 
southward. 


&& 


Aviation...VFR conditions should prevail today...although brief MVFR 
ceilings and visibilities may affect the terminals this afternoon and early 
evening due to scat passing showers and a possible thunderstorm. 


&& 


Marine...small craft advisories in effect until Tuesday afternoon 
everywhere but the Tampa Bay waters which are under scec also 
through Tuesday afternoon. Winds offshore will likely reach the 20 
to 25 knots later tonight. 


Enhanced winds and seas should last until at least Tuesday 
afternoon. 


&& 


Fire weather...no fire weather issues expected as relative 
humidities should remain above 35 percent. 


&& 


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for 
Bonita Beach to Englewood out 20 nm-Bonita Beach to 
Englewood out 20 to 60 nm-Englewood to Tarpon Springs out 
20 nm-Englewood to Tarpon Springs out 20 to 60 nm-Tarpon 
Springs to Suwannee River out 20 nm-Tarpon Springs to 
Suwannee River out 20 to 60 nm. 


Small craft exercise caution through Tuesday afternoon for Tampa 
Bay waters. 


&& 


$$ 


Discussion....AR 
aviation...np