743 
fxus65 kgjt 062002 cca 
afdgjt 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Junction Colorado 
125 PM MDT Monday Oct 6 2008 


Short term...tonight through Wednesday... 
cool and stable northwest flow now in place over the forecast 
area. Still seeing a bit of moisture working southeast voe the 
northern zones...which is keeping low stratocumulus fields in place. 
This cloud cover will dissipate this evening...with clear conditions 
expected through Wednesday over all but the northern zones...where a 
few high clouds will pass through. The big concern through the short 
term period will be the potential for a widespread killing freeze. 
Wind clearing skies and light winds...conditions will be favorable 
for excellent radiational cooling. The northwest plateau...Roaring 
Fork valley and The Four Corners valleys are all areas of concern 
and will be issuing a freeze warning for these locations later 
this afternoon. Temperatures will then be slowly modifying through 
midweek as warm air advection kicks in and upper level flow becomes more zonal in 
nature. 


Long term...Wednesday night through Monday... 
with dry zonal flow...expect dry conditions and 
above normal temperatures on Thursday. Models continue to show 
a weak baroclinic zone brushing our forecast area by Thursday 
night...have increased clouds/probability of precipitation slightly as a result. The next 
significant storm will affect the intermountain west by this 
weekend. Gradient winds will increase on Friday as a broad 
trough moves into the Great Basin region. Model solutions have 
converged slightly with both the ec and GFS showing a closed low 
over Great Basin region by Saturday. Forecast confidence is still 
low as the ec remains farther west and ejects system northeast into 
northern rockies on Sunday rather than across Colorado as with the GFS. 
However...have continued trend of increased probability of precipitation/clouds for this 
weekend with the potential for a significant storm for the forecast 
area. 


&& 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon and tonight as high 
pressure builds over the area from the west. 


&& 


Gjt watches/warnings/advisories... 
Colorado...freeze warning from midnight tonight until 9 am Tuesday for 
zones...01/02/08/21/22/23. 
Utah...none. 


$$ 


Short term.....Jdc 
long term......mpm 
aviation.......tgjt