013 
fxus65 kbou 210848 
afdbou 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver Colorado 
248 am MDT Thursday Aug 21 2008 


Short term...a drier airmass is forecast over the area this afternoon and 
tonight along with warming in the middle levels which should inhibit 
convective activity. High temperatures should be warmer this afternoon with 
readings back above seasonal normals as 850-700 mb temperatures rise a few 
more degrees. Some morning stratus and fog will be possible over 
the northestern plains early this morning before burning off by middle to late 
morning. 


Long term...see no real need at this point to make any huge changes 
to the database. The cold frontal passage across the plains still 
appears to be on schedule for the middle to late morning hours on 
Friday. This will probably stabilize the lower levels enough to 
limit thunderstorm development across the plains Friday and again on 
Saturday. Current forecast has the highest probability of precipitation over/near the 
elevated terrain on these days and this looks good at this point. 
The low levels should be less stable by Sunday giving way to a 
slightly better thunderstorm chance then. Thereafter the ridge 
aloft takes hold...Lee troughing occurs on the plains and 
thunderstorm chances should diminish. The latest GFS digs a 
substantial trough into the Great Basin by the end of the period 
which could make for an interesting middle to late week next week. 


&& 


Aviation...VFR today through tonight. Drainage winds this morning 
will become light east to southeast after 1300. 


&& 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


$$ 
Rpk/et