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afdgld 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas 
409 PM MST Friday Nov 20 2009 


Short term... (tonight - monday) 
200 PM MST Friday Nov 20 2009 


Shortwave ridge will move across the region tonight and Saturday. 
This will result in mostly clear skies and seasonably cool 
temperatures. Shortwave trough will approach The Rockies late 
Saturday and move across the High Plains Sunday morning. Middle and 
high clouds will accompany the trough but no precipitation is 
expected. Second...and stronger...system will follow quickly Sunday 
night and Monday. Model solutions are in two camps...the European model (ecmwf) and 
Canadian models have a Deep Cut off low near or over the County Warning Area with 
significant precipitation and wind Monday and Tuesday. In fact...the 
European model (ecmwf) solution continues to indicate blizzard conditions Monday night 
in the northwest to north central areas of the County Warning Area with several 
inches of snow. On the other hand...the NAM and GFS solutions are 
open waves with little if any precipitation in the forecast area. 
HPC guidance prefers the further south European model (ecmwf) solution...thus will be 
bumping up probability of precipitation...wind...and quantitative precipitation forecast in the Monday/Tuesday periods. If 
trends continue may have to consider issuing highlights over the 
weekend. 


Long term... (tuesday - friday) 
200 PM MST Friday Nov 20 2009 


Tuesday depends on evolution of the cut off low forecast to develop 
near the forecast area on Monday night. As mentioned above...prefer 
the European model (ecmwf) solution at this time...so will have Tuesday cold with a 
chance for snow in the east. The plains will be under northwest flow 
on the backside of the system midweek. There is a secondary 
shortwave trough dropping south from Canada. However think moisture 
will be scarce by that time and it will not produce any 
precipitation. The end of the period will see the western ridge 
building across The Rockies...resulting in dry weather and 
seasonably cool temperatures. 


024 
&& 


Aviation... 
409 PM MST Friday Nov 20 2009 


For the 00z tafs...VFR flight conditions with mostly clear skies will 
continue throughout valid period. Winds will continue from the south 
for the next 24 hours, but become gusty around the 15g25kt range during 
the late morning and afternoon on Saturday. 


50 
&& 


Gld watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kansas...none. 
NE...none. 
Colorado...none. 
&& 


$$