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fxus65 kpub 232140 
afdpub 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado 
340 PM MDT Wednesday Jul 23 2008 


Short term... 
(tonight and thursday) 


..monsoon plume making eastward progress today... 


The monsoon plume is making slow but steady eastward progress 
today. The leading edge of the plume has moved over the I-25 
corridor early this afternoon...and will continue slowly east into 
this evening. After sunset...thunderstorms will slowly diminish and 
end around midnight...except for a few which will persist into early 
morning along the western slopes of the eastern San Juan Mountains. 


Continued southwest flow will bring additional moisture into our 
area while an upper level disturbance moves across the northern 
rockies...and brings a weak cool front across the area Thursday. 
This will spread moisture and instability gradually across eastern 
Colorado...increasing coverage of afternoon thunderstorms. 
Temperatures will again be quite warm on the eastern plains near the 
Kansas border. Elsewhere...slightly cooler temperatures will result 
from the increased coverage of thunderstorms. 


Again...the movement of the thunderstorms will be slow...with good 
moisture available...which could lead to local heavy rain and 
flooding. 


-Jkh- 


Long term... 
(thursday night through wednesday) 


Not much change in thinking from the previous few forecast discussions 
with increasing precipitation potential as well as locally heavy 
rainfall remaining the main meteorological concerns for the longer 
term...especially from later Friday into the weekend. 


Latest longer term models indicate that centroid of upper high 
will attempt to temporarily reposition itself over Oklahoma by 
Saturday morning while remnants of Dolly moves to near El Paso 
Texas by Saturday morning. Models then varies on movement of 
remnant of Dolly with the latest European model (ecmwf) suggesting focus over 
southwest New Mexico into southern and central Arizona through the 
weekend...while GFS indicates that remnants will roam from western 
New Mexico into far southern Colorado through the weekend and then 
the nam12 keeps primary moisture from Dolly over New Mexico 
through the weekend. At any rate atmospheric moisture content is 
projected to be on the increase into the weekend with varying 
amounts of moisture available by next week as the upper ridge 
attempts to redevelop over the County warning forecast area. 


So for sensible weather will continue to indicate isolated to 
scattered probability of precipitation...some containing locally heavy rainfall...especially 
from Friday night into the weekend as precipitable water values exceed 
1 inch at times. As ridge begins to rebuild over region...precipitable 
water values expected to decrease next week. Finally...temperatures 
should continue to run above late July climatological averages 
for the majority of the long term. 


&& 


Aviation... 


Lightning...gusty winds and locally heavy rain associated with 
thunderstorms from the I-25 corridor...possibly reaching as far east 
as klhx before ending by middle evening. Local IFR ceilings and visibilities 
possible in thunderstorms. A few thunderstorms will continue past 
midnight across the eastern San Juan Mountains. Skies generally 
partly cloudy through middle morning Thursday before isolated 
thunderstorms again develop over the mountains and Palmer Divide 
and spread east across the plains. Local mountain obscuration 
vicinity of thunderstorms...with locally heavy rain...dangerous 
lightning... strong gusty winds and small hail reducing 
visibilities and causing local IFR conditions across the entire 
region. 


&& 


Pub watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$