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fxus66 keka 131210 rra 
afdeka 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Eureka California 
425 am PDT Monday Oct 13 2008 


Synopsis...a ridge aloft will build over the region today. The 
warmer air aloft coupled with light to moderate offshore flow will 
produce a warm up across northwest California today through Tuesday. 
A series of weak weather systems will move towards the Pacific 
northwest on Tuesday and Wednesday...and bring low clouds and 
patches of fog to the coast around middle week. 


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Short term...today through Wednesday...light to moderate offshore 
flow continues today as the air mass continues to warm. Vwp and 
ridge top RAWS continue to Register gusty northeast and east wind 
flow early this morning. 24-hour trends at all reporting stations were 
running several degrees warmer than last night. The warm up today 
looks to be on target and will continue to go with 10-15 degrees of 
warming across the interior. The coast should see warming today as 
well...though not quite as much as the interior. The warm up should 
peak on Tuesday across the interior...with maximum readings in the middle 
to upper 80s across the warmest valleys. Zonal flow will develop 
across the NE Pacific by Wednesday...sending a series of fronts over the 
top of the ridge into Washington and Oregon. Northwest California will be on the 
very edge of these fronts. New 06z GFS has some rain coming in Wednesday 
afternoon and Wednesday night...but the solutions have been inconsistent 
and flip-flopping around. Since this is the first run of the GFS 
that generates rain over the area...and it is 3 days away...will 
hold off on adding rain chances for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Djb 


Previous long term...Wednesday night through Sunday...zonal flow to 
weak ridging is expected to develop after a weak trough skirts the Pacific 
northwest on Tuesday...lingering through the remainder of the week. Several 
troughs are forecasted to move into the West Coast over next weekend 
into early next week...though the timing differences are not well 
resolved at this point. Other than the GFS...models have backed off 
on a distinct surface cold front moving through before early next 
week and instead showing a moist northwest flow with several weak 
boundaries moving through. Have kept climatology probability of precipitation...10 to 25 
percent...over areas north of Cape Mendocino from Friday onwards. Alm 


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Aviation...north winds have diminished across the forecast 
area...but will increase to around 10 knots later today with a few 
gusts in the afternoon. VFR visibility and ceilings will prevail throughout. 
Cirrocumulus 


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Marine...breezy north winds will continue over the outer waters through 
midweek...with lighter winds nearshore and over the beaches. A long 
period northwest swell at around 16 seconds will move into the waters 
tonight...and then slowly diminish through the week. Winds are 
expected to ease Thursday into Friday. Cirrocumulus 




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Eka watches/warnings/advisories... 


Freeze warning until 9 am PDT today for the upper Trinity River. 


Small Craft Advisory from Pt St George to pt Arena 10-60nm. 


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