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fxus66 klox 110455 
afdlox 


Southwest California area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard California 
950 PM PDT Friday Oct 10 2008 


Short term (tonight-mon)...very windy in the Santa Ynez range this 
evening especially around Montecito hills where winds were gusting 
to 60 miles per hour. A High Wind Warning is in effect for the sba County mountains 
through 9 am Sat. Other windy areas across the district this evening 
included the l.A./Vtu mountains especially along the I-5 corridor...the 
sba S coast...and the Antelope Valley where wind advisories are in 
effect overnight. Please see laxnpwlox for details on the wind 
advisories and High Wind Warning. Otherwise clear skies will cover 
most of the district overnight. Some clouds were developing over the 
vtu/l.A mountains and Antelope Valley in response to a deepening 
upper level low approaching the area. It will not be out of the 
question that some snow showers may develop overnight mainly over 
the San Gabriel Mountains as well with this system. 


Rather large upper low is forecast to be centered over Nevada and 
Utah on Sat...then the upper low will drift northwest through sun. However... 
the extent of the upper low will br broad with the forecast area 
lingering on the SW periphery of the upper circulation. An upper 
ridge is also forecast to develop off the California coast by sun as well. 
Upper troffiness will linger over Southern California into Monday with the upper 
ridge remaining off the California coast. Dry weather with mostly clear 
skies is expected over the forecast area Sat through Monday. It looks like 
north to northwest winds will diminish some for Sat...then turn more NE for 
later Sat night into Sun morning. As offshore gradients 
increase...NE canyon winds will increase and become quite gusty 
below and through the passes and canyons of vtu/l.A. Counties Sun night 
and Monday morning...where wind advisories will likely be needed in 
some areas. With some 850 mb cold air advection and upper level 
support...would not be surprised to see winds approach High Wind 
Warning criteria at times in the l.A. County mountains...the eastern 
Santa Clara River Valley area and other eastern valleys of vtu 
County as well as the Santa Clarita valley. Temperatures over the region 
will be somewhat tricky but it looks like highs should remain about 
10 degrees below normal for many areas on Sat then gradually warm to 
near normal by Monday. 


..from previous discussion... 


Long term (tue-fri)...gradients remain strongly offshore Tuesday 
but upper support is weaker so winds are not expected to be quite as 
strong. However, the warming trend will continue with highs well 
into the 80s and lower 90s for most coastal and valley areas. High 
pressure starts to break down Wednesday and Thursday but gradients are expected 
to remain at least weakly offshore so skies are expected to remain 
clear and highs at or above normals in most areas. May have some 
cooling right at the coast due to an earlier sea breeze, otherwise 
temperatures should remain about the same. A little more cooling expected 
Friday as models show a trough over California. 


&& 


Aviation...11/0450z...hi confidence VFR conditions will continue 
through Sat over the region. With gusty north winds below passes and 
canyons...low level wind shear conditions will be likely around ksba...kbur and kvny 
overnight into Sat morning as well. 


Klax...high confidence in clear skies through Sat. 


Kbur...high confidence in clear skies through Sat. Low level wind 
shear possible tonight into Sat morning. 


&& 


Lox watches/warnings/advisories... 
High Wind Warning (see laxnpwlox). 
Fire Weather Watch (see laxrfwlox). 
Wind Advisory (see laxnpwlox). 
Gale Warning (see laxmwwlox). 
Small Craft Advisory (see laxmwwlox). 


&& 


$$ 


Public...sirard/Wofford 
aviation...sirard 


Www.Weather.Gov/losangeles